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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • return5x return5x Mar 16, 2012 3:04 AM Flag

    OT - BMY

    Just wondering... are you guys (Doc, Roy, etc) still as bullish on BMY?

    It dropped a bit today, presumably related to the German findings that Eliquis has no added benefit over Lovenox. I know the FDA ruling in the US is due in June, so there is plenty of time there, but it would seem there is now some potential risk on the outcome, and that might cap the upside previously anticipated.

    So, if the drop continues tomorrow is it cause for worry, or a buying opportunity?

    5X

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    • goodness, another healthy selloff. Guess nobody want the diverdent.

    • Hey Pal -

      "Pal" - Why I haven't heard that word in years.

      AMYLIN........ slowly I turned, step by step, inch by inch,... :-)

      C'mon $35...... in spite of the announcement!!

      Salty

    • Hey Salty

      Or the craps table at the Hardrock in Hollywood!

      Extraordinary volume - maybe large Funds coming in for the dividend?
      Or maybe they expect some good news?
      Either way I'm let her run at least a few more days - I think we'll hit $34 by Fri - Mon $35 is possible

      thx
      R

    • Hey Roy -

      Still cheering for you guys and your BMY bets!!

      I feel like I'm at Hialeah, holding YOUR 50 cent trifecta ticket that's about to pay off big time :-)

      What about the 24+MM shares traded the past 3 days - is that typical of a BMY divvy run-up??

      C'mon $35!

      Salty

    • Nice job Xion! 20% plus in a week!
      A win is a win - no one can take that away from you.

      cheers!
      R

    • I have exited my BMY April $33 Calls today @ 0.67. I paid 0.54 for each of them when I bought them last week. I know I have exited a bit too early. This is my first time buying BMY calls. I guess I still have a lot to learn.

    • Hi 5X and Jim,

      Excellent info thanks guys.

      I did a 6 month Chart with Bollinger Bands and a 180 day moving average and the Top Band showed a high of $35.60 for this dividend.

      The last dividend hit right on the top band and the previous dividend slightly above it.

      So the $35.60 is looking good!

      GL!

    • Thanks for the analysis, Jim. Great to have additional eyeballs on this.

      My own model (using the past 4 quarters daily high and close prices, indexed starting 20 days out from Ex-div and then averaged across quarters) is projecting a high this Thursday of $34.40, up $0.92 from close today. That is in line with the lower end of what you noted, so I hope it turns out to be conservative and we hit the $35+ range before it's over.

      With respect to Doc's observation about dividend-run compression, in looking at BMY I found that half of the increase during the last 20 days before Ex-div occured in the last 8 days when I used 7 quarters of data; but when I used only the most recent 4 quarters half of the increase came in the final 4 days. Definitely looks like patience pays, at least in reduced risk (although it could also cause you to miss the boat if the run started early). The best course is probably to establish a partial position early, then wait for the same or better opportunity to roll around again within the last week before EX.

      Regards,
      5X

    • Hey Roy, 5X, and Doc,

      BMY is finally beginning to come around (exhale). Looking at the history, in the last 5 trading days prior to X-d. (which equates to open tomorrow thru close next Monday), BMY has added the following amounts in reaching its pre X-d. highs:
      +.35
      +1.62
      +1.63
      +1.81

      Projecting the historic range on an opening price tomorrow of 33.58 (today's close), would give you a range (to the pre X-d. high) of 33.93 to 35.39, with an average of 34.93. Will we get to the range this cycle? After today's action, I'm certainly bullish for the lower end of the range (circa 34).

      Cheers

    • Hey Guys

      Completely agree. I'm up a nice chunk of change and could get out now with a 6 figure win but I'm gonna let these run. At $34 I'll start taking some of the table probably but still looking for $35. Not sure if I can hold out till next Monday. Hoping for a positive announcement tonight or tomorrow from the conference.

      Doc, interesting observation on the 1 week to 10 day divvy run. More players in the game with the divvy run strategy in a bull market.

      GL to all!

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