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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • bohleyman bohleyman Apr 16, 2012 3:26 PM Flag

    EVEP Trade...

    Hi Doc, looks like your EVEP plan is working out right on schedule. Last year it pulled back 11.33% and bottomed on April 12th. Do you think its time to pull the trigger or is it really falling apart this time?

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    • EVEP is down $4.00 on the day so far.

    • I think there is a fundamental problem going forward in the MLP space, especially in NG. I further believe that EVEP is too thinly traded to be an honest play(very open to manipulation).

      When the MLP's have pulled back sharply, there is no buying in volume at support. Oh we see KMP support at 80 and EPD at 49.50, but the buying has been weak by the bulls. So much so that we see support approached again and again, when we should be getting a run toward EX.

      If we see 79 in KMP and 48 in EPD, the break will be in earnest. We saw the opposite for EVEP last Q, with the break B4 EX, and the bulls coming back post EX. First time in EVEP's history. This will be the first(or second) time in both EPD and KMP's last 14Q's(over 3 years), that will see a decline in PPS, from a month out, if we don't get a rally.

      I still see 52 for EPD and 84.50 for KMP @ dbex(DAY b4 ex).There is extreme weakness in the MLP space though as evidenced further by the weak back and forth. That is, down days(pull backs) are much stronger than up days. We see over 1.00 down on KMP, with a weak, .50 rally. Not good. Bears are in control.

      Therefore I would avoid EVEP as the plague. Many will take advantage and make lots of money, perhaps. With the weakness that I outlined I am sitting this one out. I am way overexposed on many MLP's. I hope for a rally into EX. I am not holding my breath, as I see what I see.

      Good luck,

      DocReits

 
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