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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us May 7, 2012 3:27 PM Flag

    OT...ERF

    What do you think of ERF hitting the lowest lows since the 2008-09 crash and then back to 2003 for support.

    Gas is low, and ERF could go lower, but I am seriously looking at some Long Oct Calls 17.00, offset with Short Oct 16 Puts for EVEN to .10.

    What do you think?

    DocReits

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    • Here is the chart:

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ERF&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=m50%2Cm200%2Cb%2Cm28&a=r14%2Cm26-12-9%2Css&c=

      I like historical lows. When the PPS crosses back above the 28 sma, it will be a good sign. We may have further down to go before it turns.

      DocReits

      • 2 Replies to reits_r_us
      • Is that Enerplus?
        I just dabbled in it and broke even on may17puts. I think it has hit its floor. I say that because it dropped very little when the rest of the market dropped. It will not stay that low for more than six weeks, as most issues that fall that far rarely assume a lateral movement for long while sustaining a 12% dividend all from earnings. I think it is all from earnings anyway.

        Still holding some may 19calls, which it breasted once but did not meet my sell number. Natural gas pricing is what caused most of the [panic] slump.

      • I've followed ERF for years. Of all the former Canroys, ERF had the highest % of natural gas holdings (in terms of revenue received), so it's not surprising that , as natural gas prices drop, their income shrinks and is reflected in their stock price. At today's close, the probability of pps increase rose to over 75% ... not quite to its -1s trend line. It appears to have more downside to go, possibly to challenge the March 2009 low close of $13.28 per share by mid-August. That's not a prediction, but stocks have a knack for challenging former lows in times of poor economic background.

 
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