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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ben9471 ben9471 May 10, 2012 11:13 AM Flag

    OT - WIN

    For those who have a some pepto bismal, WIN was an earning miss last night. Win is Windstream. It dropped to $9.42 and had I been watching it then I would have been buying more calls than I did. AT present, I picked up the Nov. 8's for $2.10 to $2.15. It started out today at $10.79. While you can debate how horrible it all is, the company has been paying a divdiend of $.25 per quarter for a very long time, so at $1.00 in annual dividends, the yield is 10%. It is a yield stock, but at this level of dividend, you will get a pop before next ex., which will be on or about 6/27. With the earnings, the announced the dividend yesterday of $.25 per quarter. This is a two year low. I have lost money on this before, but I have never bought at a yield of 10%. I will acculumlate more, but want to a little for due diligence on the cash flow. As far as I can tell, they generate cash flow about $.44, net of the dividend. The dividend was declared with the earnings. It is highly levered and cash balances are dropping, but like all teleocm models, the capex is always a factor in customer acquisition. STtill, a dividend of $1.00 on a price of $10.00, get me easily to $11. AT $11, I make a return of 42%. The high last quartter before ex was $12.17. I am going to watch it now, but will add some short puts, likely Jan. ITM, so I have synthetic long. I would just prefer for the market to be worse than it is today to put this trade on, but $9.42 didn't last long. Thank you CNBC.;range=2y;compare=;indicator=dividend+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

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    • Hey Ben,

      Any guidance on the Telecoms? I have a few more Nov8 Calls on Win. 9.00 is my out...getting close...


    • Shed almost all of Win. Bad environment, bad management(Why did they need all of the extra management positions they are now shedding so freely?)

      Sorry Ben, I see no light at the end of the Telecom tunnel, esp in a general Bear market.

      Hope to make it back on my Shorts on the SPY and Longs on MTGE.

      Good luck...


    • The only nice thing about staying with these telecom stocks is they are holding ground after having the crap kicked out of them for one week. So, I actually am beginning to feel comfortable with CTL, FTR and WIN after seeing them hold ground, and less comfortable with anything with profits, including AGNC.

    • By Bloomberg Data
      May. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Windstream Corp (WIN US) was raised to "Buy" from
      "Hold" at Stifel Nicolaus by equity analyst Christopher King. The 12-month
      target price is $11.00 per share.

    • FWIW - The ex date for WIN is 6/27.

    • There will be more investors exiting today. Ftr is definitively the more speculative play, no question. I have little exposure. Would I short ftr here? Well everyone else has already with a huge short position. Maybe, maybe you see 3.00. I wouldn't short win with your money. Best advice is to read the earnings releases for ctl, win and ftr to learn why they are appealing at these levels. Win and ftr gudred lower, but both declared dividends and stated they can be continued. Right before the last week before ex div, let's just see. Worth a small bet, but no averaging down. Both are oversold, and ftr constitutes a short squeeze. Will it happen? I don't know, I just paced a small bet. I like giving things more than one or two days, but you should close out.

    • I wish us well Ben. Pretty incredible volume with selling winning out over buying. A lot of folks hit the exit door today. Should be interesting going forward. I am not averaging down. I was thinking of shorting the shares today. What would Jessie do?....;-)


    • Protect yourself doc, good idea, but I have a bit more comfort with these. I said from the start that these are not easy trades, but this is telecom. Disagree that there are no buyers though, as we are three weeks out from ex and the volumes are heavy. For anyone who can't afford to lose get out of this, if you see another fall. However, I kind of feel that today was not a good day for exiting the trade, but continual down days aren't great for confidence in a something new. We all know the risks, best to take a modest position, which I have done. I will stay with these awhile longer.

    • Sorry Ben,

      I exited FTR and 1/3 my WIN today. I felt over exposed based upon my gut and outlook for the general market. As you know, these telecoms follow the general market pretty closely.

      So if I truly believe my S$$t, re the demise of the market in general, I ask myself what the H^^lL am I doing going long these stocks. Stupid. Not you, me. There was an oversold position on WIN, so I am still with you. I am out at 9.00, as I see no buyers for WIN. No buyers mean no increase in PPS.

      These stocks remind me of NLY. Old and stagnant, with no future. I'm plowing my money into winners, AGNC, MTGE and PSEC. Focus and make money. Get distracted and lose.

      Love you Ben, but I have bad vibes on these telecoms. I wish myself wrong. I am out at BE, if it comes. Cussing myself.....;-(


    • Sorry, posted under wrong thread, and now I can't post on the other....;-)

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