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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • jforuus jforuus May 21, 2012 11:55 AM Flag

    Underlying resons why AGNC is up lately

    Another person in denial and living the dream.

    I am not a bear nor am I bull. I am a student of economics with a backbone of an engineer.

    I notice you finanical guys for the most part have thin skin and a debate or fact finding conversation turns into an argument.

    I wish you no ill will.

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    • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld May 21, 2012 12:24 PM Flag

      Uh, yeah. When your first post is a paranoid rant, nobody's going to take you seriously. Especially not here.

      First of all, your claims that someone is manipulating AGNC in order to close out are ludicrous. It takes an egregious amount of money to manipulate a liquid stock, and in the end makes only tiny differences in results while incurring huge risks. If the whales see something nicer on the other end of the market, they know they're better off just closing out this one and getting their cash into that one sooner. Only the dreck gets manipulated. That's why JPM was making huge bets in CDX markets, which are relatively lightly traded. They knew they could influence them with little money down and make a few extra basis points on each trade. The "stupid" part was while they were mechanically hedging the most obvious risk they totally missed a big hole in the phase space, and fell right into it. Their "hedged trade" is actually a $100 billion risk, of which they've admitted booking $2 billion, and which since has been extrapolated to $3 billion and climbing. They're still losing money, since their illiquid, manipulable playing field has been turned against them, and everyone they approach to unload part of their position shows them a retail price worse price than the last guy. Even they don't have enough money to manipulate it back into their favor, and the risk has already cost them multiple "legendary" executives. So no, nobody is buying your contention that this stock, or the market in general, is being manipulated, because it indicates you don't have a clue about practical matters in investing to go with your comic-book sense of theoretical matters in investing.

      I forget the other parts of your rant. Probably for the better. I recall their supporting my deduction from the first part that you're a loudmouthed balloon, and your posts since have only further cemented that assessment.

      "I am a student of economics with a backbone of an engineer."

      Keep studenting, you're not done yet. And any decent engineer would have added a margin for error before sticking his foot so near his mouth.

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