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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ddjim2 ddjim2 May 24, 2012 1:23 PM Flag

    OT: BMY

    FYI to the DD,

    BMY is starting to heat up again, with the tentative X-d. date circa 6/29, and the expected FDA approval for Eliquis still set for 6/28. Eliquis is one of 3 drugs in its particular niche, with Boehringer Ingelheim's Pradaxa and J&J's Xarelto. Xarelto was just slammed by the FDA, which bodes well for BMY. Running the historic numbers from today until the high before X-d., BMY has gained an average of 2.60 from today's opening price, which puts the current pre-X-d. projected high at 35.11. From today's proxy date the range is projected to be between 33.82 and 36.72. Given the additional excitement around the FDA approval date (Eliquis is expected to be a blockbuster drug for BMY), BMY could see even higher numbers. In light of the foregoing, 34 would appear to be a "safe" target price.

    By all means do your own due diligence, but BMY is worth a look.

    Cheers

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    • Bmy reached $34.98 earlier today, we are getting very close.

    • My dear friends at this moment I'm holding 1,889 BMY July $34 calls and I'm hoping for the best. My entry cost was 0.72 and I my ideal exit is 1.25-1.50, but if it doesn't happen I can settle for 1.00 when BMY reaches $35. I'm praying and hoping that Elliquis will be approved by the FDA. I wish everyone good luck ( =

    • My July 33's & 34's have been on a tear so far this week. Thanks for the heads up, jim!

    • Congrats Jim on your BMY position. Any revisions for PPS before EX? If those Yahoo's on their message board would ever stop talking Smack, they could actually make some money trading their stock.....;-)

      DocReits

      • 2 Replies to reits_r_us
      • Hey Doc,Jim! I put in a posted guess over on the BMY board of 26.13. I like when my calculations are somewhere near yours Jim.

        Good luck to BMYers, FOXY

      • Hey Doc,

        Thanks. Yes, the BMY message board is a mess. We are very fortunate to have such thoughtful posters on the AGNC Board.

        As regards BMY's pre X-d. high, using historic price data, the projected range (from today's open) is 35.25 to 36.75, with an average of 36.03 (using data from last 4 Qs). Given that the expected FDA approval for Eliquis is still on track for 6/28/12, with BMY's projected X-d. date in close proximity, a price of 35 would appear highly likely.

        As always, this is conditioned upon the macro picture not dragging everything down.

        Cheers

    • Bmy: Up >2% in pre-market trading this Mon. morning due to good test results of its new melanoma drug. This, along with BMY getting ready for its quarterly runup, may cause a flurry of buying this week for BMY,imo. Happy hunting, FOXY

      • 1 Reply to faaqcee
      • Wow. Someone(s) hit their sell target of 34+ today with BMY.

        So much for the 2% pre-market gain. BMY is now in the red for the day.
        It could be those with any gains anywhere are protecting them.
        It could also be an indication of a very volatile market this week and a day traders paridise ahead.
        I still like BMY up until its ex-date though.
        BMY's next dividend has yet to be announced and it is "due". Its last declaration was 03/06/12, a dividend of 34c, which went ex- on 04/03/12. The dividend was paid on 05/01/12, as per "dividendinvestor.com"

    • Hey Jim,

      BMY is up .34 from the date of your " heads up" post. It is showing uncanny resilience in the face of the general market decline. Wow!, only gave up a penny on Friday, pretty amazing. I have been following for any signs of weakness and haven't found any yet. Does that portend a strong run toward EX, this month?

      It usually tracks the market fairly closely , and that is why I was hesitant to join the run this month as I have been predicting this downward sell off for months now, in the general market.

      I have noticed that for this past year though, BMY has been the most divergent, to the upside in almost it's entire history, from the general market. It tracked below the market in the crash of 2007-08, and now is diverging in the opposite direction.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=BMY

      I am still looking for weakness to go Long the 31Calls for July and Short the 33Puts for June. That would place me at current PPS(33.33) as BE, and dis encumber me of the Short Puts on June 15th to ride the naked Long Calls into the EX.

      What do you think?

      DocReits

    • Thanks Jimmy :)

    • What does this topic have to do with AGNC??

      • 2 Replies to jbwalt
      • Hey Jerry,

        Apologies for straying away from AGNC on AGNC's dedicated message board.

        Many of us on this board have been interacting for years, and like to share other investment opportunities with each other. It has proven to be very informative and profitable, particularly as it relates to other dividend/distribution driven stocks, such as REITs and MLPs. In most cases, this board's discussions of other stocks is far superior to the discussions/arguments/discord that you will find on the given stock's own message board. As a courtesy to those readers only interested in AGNC related comments, we preface the "Subject" line with "OT", in order to give notice that the subject matter is "Off Topic".

        While this approach is slightly unconventional, it works well with this board's unique concentration of very skilled investors, who are willing to share the benefit of their trading experience/acumen with the rest of us. You will also find that for the most part, we treat each other with courtesy and respect. Welcome aboard.

        Cheers

      • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld May 25, 2012 11:01 AM Flag

        Nothing, that's why it says "OT" in the title. "Off Topic."

        Just a way to get a discussion out of a group here that you believe will have a different perspective.

        Don't like OT posts? Don't click on them.

    • PS

      My mistake, BMY July 33's at are $1.

      If my price target is $34.50 doesn't leave much room for profit or error especially for a otm contract. Best to wait for a pull back. .50 would be nice right now.

      PG shooting up .50 today. :-)

    • Hey Guys,

      Thanks for the best wishes, I wish you all the same.

      I think the market turns Bear but not till the end of year so we have a couple bites left of the apple.

      I agree MTGE's June's and July's is the place to be Xion - especially on dips.

      Doc, yep the premiums on the BMY options seem high.
      I bought the 33's last quarter for around .35 asking over .50 right now. Waiting to buy on dips.

      I think over all strategy is to buy on market dips, opex and euro-trashed news. Last week that worked well when we had a perfect storm of all three on Thus and Fri.

      Now if we could get an AGNC spo chaser along with that brew - we're off to the races.

      Let's just hope we don't get really bad Euro news ex week.

      best to all
      R

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