The stock has already had a nice run the past month. The dividend was held the same at 1.25 as many expected. This may restrain yield chasers. With the short time frame from annoucement to ex-date the trading time is compressed for those wanting to sell prior to the ex date.
Many of the smart people on this board are playing options on this stock which IMO does affect the stock price. MM's are keeping option spreads wide ( and even increasing them on the Sept calls)trying to slow the activity on the options and forcing option holders to lower their bids as we move toward the ex-div date.
Many people are not buy/hold investors on this stock. So they buy but sell before the ex-div date. IMO this creates an extra selling pressure prior to the ex-div date causing the selloff the last few days prior to the ex-div date.
I am a both a buy/hold and and options trader on AGNC. AGNC has been one of the best investments for me. However, the factors noted above are making it a bit more difficult to maximize profits on options with the MM manipulation that seems to be occuring.
I doubt that the stock will run to $34 before ex-div. Im guessing $33.50 to $33.75 may be the top. I am 100% certain that there will be a SPO shortly after the ex date.