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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • faaqcee faaqcee Jul 24, 2012 1:13 PM Flag

    Kicking Myself Once Again...

    How many times have I told myself(and posted the fact) that AGNC is the stock where to sink the majority of my money?

    Too many to count, and many too many not to have known better.

    Agnc goes up on an up day and goes up on down ones.

    Silly me: I invested some cash, then chased the pps down in MCP, currently trading around 17.
    My ave cost? 28 or so. OUCH, double Ouch.
    At this point I think I have to hold MCP until a turnaround, but when will that be?
    Who knows. Triple Ouch!

    I cannot wait for AGNC's(and MTGE's) paydate.
    The cash will go into one or the other, but
    I will not stray, I will not stray.
    Evidently I need to practice this mantra, maybe this time I will learn.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • 10% senior secured notes? Pretty expensive capital.


      Molycorp Prices $650 Million of Senior Secured Notes

      MAY 18, 2012 in MCP NEWS RELEASES, FEATURED MCP NEWS
      Greenwood Village, CO (May 18, 2012, 4:01 p.m. Eastern) — Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) (“Molycorp” or the “Company”) today announced the pricing of $650 million aggregate principal amount of 10.000% senior secured notes due 2020 in an offering exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”). The notes will be senior secured obligations of Molycorp and will be guaranteed by certain of Molycorp’s subsidiaries. The gross proceeds from the offering of the senior secured notes will be placed into escrow pending the consummation of the proposed acquisition by the Company of Neo Material Technologies Inc. (“Neo”). Following release of the gross proceeds from escrow, the Company intends to use a substantial portion of the net proceeds from the offering to fund a portion of the Company’s proposed acquisition of Neo, including related fees and expenses, and any remaining net proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes.

      The senior secured notes and related note guarantees to be offered will not be and have not been registered under the Securities Act and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration requirements. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy such notes or note guarantees and is issued in accordance Rule 135c under the Securities Act.

    • Foxy,
      On MCP I am right there with you. I called that one pretty bad- but I am still firm in the 2014 forecast for LED and REE.

      Dabbled in VMWare options to play the earnings- made out very well. I am in the industry and have a good thesis on VMware long term- will post if interested

      • 1 Reply to robert_jdelaney
      • Hey Robert, MCP reports next week, from what I understand(2nd,3rd?), I might want to hold what I have for a dice roll. Historically MCP moves as quickly up as it falls, when it moves.
        I've held some MCP since it was 42 and AGNC was at 28. AAAAAHHH!!! AGNC 25, MCP 17.
        When they crossed is when I should have jumped, instead of making 2 more MCP buys.

        As for VMW, it looks as though I missed the recent run.
        Also, VMW is a little expensive for my taste, but thanks for the offer. I'm just a little guy. :)
        You can always post your ideas here anyway.
        Most people on this board are open to trading ideas of any sort, except for the shameless shills.
        Start a new post as "OT", or just follow this response.
        Although I most probably will not trade VMW, gathering trading ideas is good for expanding one's knowledge in the art or playing/trading stock.

        Good luck, FOXY

    • Hey Foxy,
      Nothing is a sure thing...in fact complacency is a danger.

      Yeah AGNC is rocking. I missed holding onto my Sept 30 calls longer, I missed the SPO partially and chose not to go long here till dividend/earnings. Still 1/2 long in my IRA.

      Do I wish I could get those $29 shares and load up- heck yeah but AGNC days will come where $29 will seem high. When?- who knows but if economy starts to heat and interest rates rise then I will likely sell my long holdings.

      IMHO- Earnings were not so good (bad in fact) and we are still riding on momentum of the Q1 results and people seeking the yield.

      I called the SPO date - pure luck. Current forecast- If we see the highs again we will see a huge offer after Ex date and if it goes to 36, before ex date.

    • Join this up train, you can't stop it, you can only hope to contain it!!!!!

    • Two-thirds of all stocks move with the general market. The more diversified your portfolio, the more likely it is that it will move with the market. Therefore, if you think that the market is going down, diversification is a good way to go along with it. When I decided that the market was going down, I decided the best thing to do was lose the diversification and buy something with a big divy, without European exposure, and that doesn't follow the market .... sound familiar?

      • 3 Replies to ray8435893
      • My portfolio does much better than the market. the market will be down and I will be up most days. So on your theory that it follows the market... not entirely correct. I am doing much better than the market. Here is my portfolio.

        Cash balance $157,579.13 $20,212.63
        Margin balance $0.00 $0.00
        Long stock value $431,628.04 -$463.00
        Short option value -$1,849.00 $41.45
        Account value $587,358.17 $19,791.08





        Buying Power (BP)
        Order Status

        Avail. funds for trading

        $228,171.74


        Stock BP

        $641,625.70


        Day trade BP

        $916,249.42


        Options BP

        $204,890.74


        How is this calculated?




        Restore original view
        Gain/Loss




        Account Positions




        Options Exposure


        Stocks = $431,628.04*

        View: Custom views | Micro Charts |


        Long = $431,628.04*

        Symbol

        Qty

        Dividend Yield

        Description



        AMTG

        1000

        15.02

        APOLLO RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE COM


        BBEP

        300

        10.01

        BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS LP COM


        BKCC

        1428

        10.74

        BLACKROCK KELSO CAP CORP COM


        BPL

        100

        7.73

        BUCKEYE PARTNERS L P UNIT LTD PARTN INITS


        CLMT

        200

        8.78

        CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS PTR COM


        CYS

        1970

        14.16

        CYS INVESTMENTS INC COM


        DX

        1000

        11.44

        DYNEX CAPITAL INC COM


        EFC

        610

        12.60

        ELLINGTON FINANCIAL LLC COM


        ETP

        292

        7.84

        ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS LP COM


        FDUS

        962

        9.61

        FIDUS INVESTMENT CORP COM


        FSC

        1259

        11.43

        FIFTH STREET FINANCIAL CORP COM


        FULL

        1798

        11.61

        FULL CIRCLE CAP CORP COM


        GAINP

        15

        7.02

        GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORP PRFD A 7.125% MAT 02/28/17


        GBDC

        911

        8.37

        GOLUB CAPITAL BDC COM


        GLAD

        1719

        10.12

        GLADSTONE CAPITAL CORP COM


        GOOD

        800

        8.68

        GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORP COM


        IVR

        736

        13.58

        INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC COM


        LGCY

        200

        7.94

        LEGACY RESERVES LP


        LRE

        350

        11.04

        LRR ENERGY LP COM


        MCC

        1177

        10.32

        MEDLEY CAPITAL CORP COM


        MHR-D

        150

        9.13

        MAGNUM HUNTER RESOURCES CORP PFD STOCK


        MITT

        667

        12.93

        AG MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST COM


        MTGE

        1093

        14.65

        AMERICAN CAP MTG INVT CORP COM


        PMT

        735

        10.52

        PENNYMAC MTG INVEST TRUST COM


        PNNT

        1400

        10.52

        PENNANT INVESTMENT CORP COM


        PSE

        250

        8.01

        PIONEER SOUTHWEST ENERGY PAR COM


        PSEC

        1500

        10.95

        PROSPECT CAPITAL CORPORATION COM


        QRE

        600

        10.39

        QR ENERGY LP COM


        RSO

        1879

        15.07

        RESOURCE CAPITAL CORP COM


        SLRC

        620

        10.44

        SOLAR CAPITAL LTD COM


        SUS-A

        500

        9.14

        SUSQUEHANNA CAP I TR PFD


        TCPC

        921

        9.55

        TCP CAP CORP COM


        TCRD

        1000

        8.75

        THL CREDIT INC COM


        TICC

        1414

        11.27

        TICC CAPITAL CORP COM


        VNR

        200

        8.23

        VANGARD NATURAL RESOURCES COM



        Options = $-1,849.00*

        View: Custom views | Micro Charts |





        Symbol

        Qty

        Underlying Symbol

        Bid

        Ask

        B/A Size

        Last

        Change

        Change %

        Volume

        Open Interest



        AGNC Aug 18 2012 32.0 Put

        -22

        AGNC

        0.15

        0.17

        1X354

        0.15

        0.01

        7.25

        151

        3150


        AGNC Aug 18 2012 33.0 Put

        -10

        AGNC

        0.18

        0.25

        45X603

        0.24

        0.02

        9.01

        248

        3847


        AGNC Aug 18 2012 34.0 Put

        -35

        AGNC

        0.30

        0.35

        3X459

        0.35

        -0.09

        -20.58

        357

        4282

      • Hey Ray, the buying of AGNC and MTGE perhaps?

      • My thoughts exactly.

    • Most dumb post I have ever seen. MCP is a deathtrap. I don't buy anything that doesn't pay dividends, and even then I like to buy things that can easily cover their distributions - anything else is called gambling. I expect ROI to come back from dividends. Another word of advice, averaging down on a losing position - especially one that doesn't pay dividends... usually is a great way to lose money faster. There are plenty of really good investment opportunities out there. You're better off diversifying in 35-60 MLPS, BDCS, MREITS. You'll outperform the market that way because of yield.

      Here is a list.. Its a bit dated(I made this in MAY 2012). Consider some of these investments.


      CYS DIVERSIFIED MREIT, BACKED 15.03%
      AMTG MIXED MREIT and has nonbacked 16.18%
      TWO MIXED MREIT and has nonbacked 16.02%
      IVR MIXED MREIT and has nonbacked 17.41%
      MITT MREIT 14.33%
      NLY MREIT 13.62%
      EFC MREIT 13.2%
      FULL BDC 13.03%
      CMO MREIT ADJ RATE ALL? 12.88%
      FSC BDC 12.75%
      PMT MREIT 12.58%
      DX MREIT NONBACK, good price history, 12.32%
      TICC BDC 11.87%
      BKCC BDC 11.53%
      PSEC BDC 11.52%
      SLRC BDC 11.48%
      MCC BDC 11.26%
      GLAD BDC 10.92%
      ARCC BDC 10.09%
      AINV BDC 12.14%
      MFA MREIT 13.04%
      GBDC BDC 8.97%
      GAIN BDC 8.68%
      GAINP preferred 7.10%
      GOOD (REIT) 9.17%
      GOODP preferred stock 7.67%
      GOODO (buy under 25) preferred stock 7.47%
      AGNCP (25 is par) preferred stock 7.9%
      PNNT BDC 12.08%
      KCAP 0.73 of book. BDC 12.63%
      SUNS senior secured loans. 7.21%
      PFLT (Floating rate senior secured loans, book 14+, 11.70 last trade, 7.68% yield)
      FDUS BDC trades under book, yield 10.89%
      TCPC BDC 9.71% NEW
      MTGE MREIT 15.27%
      AGNC MREIT 16.11%
      RLH-A preferred hotel 9.3%
      MFA-A preferred 8.27%
      SUS-A banking preferred 8.99%
      RSO-A MREIT preferred
      PRY 7% BDC unsecured debt

    • You gotta know when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em.

      • 1 Reply to gman310
      • Hey G, I fairly recently purchased MCP at 21 and it rose over 23 in a day or two.
        When it dropped a few bucks I thought it would recover as quickly as it had fallen, as it sometimes did in the past.
        Hence, is the reason for my reluctance to sell even at this currently low price. Who wants to buy high and sell low when you can sell lower. LOL, Waa Waa.
        I still think MCP is a growing company and not one in danger of bankrupcy. It was merely my timing that was off, WAY, WAY, off.
        If I hadn't have bought then, I probobly would be buying now.

        Good luck< FOXY

    • Yo clown dog, nobody gives a crap. Ok, so just go away. Thank you.

    • Agnc is the monster of all stocks,its keeps on giving,50% in mtge and 50% in agnc.thats my 2cent

    • There is only one question that must be answered. Will the money spent on MCP do better where it is or will it do better if you sell MCP and put the money to use in AGNC, or some other stock? Nothing else matters. My inclination would be to move it to AGNC or some other mREIT of similar quality.

      When the market is as it is today, with all the volatility because of concerns about the future of our economy as well as the economies of others, I think that diversification pretty much guarantees a loss. Better to have focused investments at times like this and to be agile in case conditions change.

    • View More Messages
 
AGNC
22.46+0.33(+1.49%)Sep 19 4:15 PMEDT

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