Looking at the last 10 days before EX for the last 21 quarters: 81% quarters finished positive with most highs occurring in last 4 days before EX. Average Increase in last 10 days before EX of all quarters was $0.73. Average Increase for last 10 days of last four quarters was $2.44. However, this quarter is lower than the previous two quarters. RSI is low.
I'm guessing high before EX in last four days between $23.00-23.70. I will probably sell in the lower part of this range, if it gets there.
I bought BMY 34 puts yesterday, looking for a low in about 3 weeks.
I'm joining you on the BMY puts ,charts look good .I can't add more to CQP,it may reverse and run up but I'm not willing to risk more $ on a call that dragged me down so far,totally unexpected.The other thing even on up days,the CQP calls are down sometimes;totally illogical.
I'm guessing you are buying the BMY puts, because historically the price depreciates from the ex-d? Romney is now leading in the polls though, so do you think this could actually cause the markets to appreciate with the drop in the capital gains tax to 0% for those making under 200k?
"do you think this could actually cause the markets to appreciate with the drop in the capital gains tax to 0% for those making under 200k?"
I don't know. It seems logical that the capital gains money presently going to the IRS would find it's way into the market place if retained by citizens, either by spending or investing. Both would tend to create jobs.
You are correct about my reason for buying BMY puts. The long term averages show a BMY low about 30 days after EX. Assuming that occurs, I will cover the puts, and buy calls at that dip.