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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Nov 7, 2012 8:25 PM Flag

    Pumpkin-Spice Dollarmite

    Hey YBF,

    I have always appreciated your explanations, together with your victories and defeats. We hear often of folks winning, but very few admissions of losses.

    I am upside down on some of my short Put holdings and had a question for you. I noticed when your Dec33Puts were trading up to 3.25, that the 13Jun32Puts were trading at 5.35 bid. You could have rolled those Dec32Puts to 13Jun32's and have still retained a (5.35 + 1.05 - 3.25) 3.15 credit.. We only have to move to 32.50 on the EX run for you to BE... any more would be gravy.

    Just curious...trust me, I have bailed in the past also, when I figured it was a fall with no net beneath my feet. You are always such an analytically inclined trader I was just wondering why you didn't roll instead of bailing...



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    • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Nov 7, 2012 10:58 PM Flag

      Genuine lack of confidence that the Congress would deal fairly with the White House as the fiscal cliff approaches. Boehner today, after I traded, made some noise about softening, but he was originally Obama's golfing buddy early in the last term. McConnell is the troublemaker, and Norquist can't be voted out of office as chief lobbyist on K street, so Boehner can play rope-a-dope and make Democrats think they're going to get the carrot, right up until the cliff has passed beneath our feet. I don't mind losing what's left of the long-call side of this position, but I didn't like the idea of a deep abyss below the short puts. A flash-crash to the mid 20s would have made me cry real tears.

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