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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Nov 15, 2012 3:30 PM Flag

    Hey, Here is a Refreshing Break from the Rhetoric

    Hi Everyone,

    Here is an idea, germane to this message board, which Crackspider complimented me upon the other day....:-) BUY MORE AGNC NOW!!!! He and others would probably suggest buying high and selling low, but I suggest the opposite. Buying LOW and selling HIGH has GREAT advantages over all others.

    To that end, I have been continuing to purchase hundreds of spread contracts on the Dec Contract in Calls. My limit has been reached on my hundreds of short Puts. My purchase today was on the Dec29/30 Bull Call Spread for .57 debit. BE @ 29.57 by Dec OPEX. Max gain .43/spread, @ 30 or higher by Dec OPEX. Max loss .57/spread @ 29.00 or lower by the same time.

    I will continue to accumulate upon further weakness. Curse me if you must, but there has been NOTHING fundamentally that has changed with the mReits(well, except that dog NLY..but that has been going down to the crapper, with their escalating CPR rate, for some time..so it hasn't changed either..Oh, I forgot, they have an idiot CEO now, who showed her hand by dissing the President, and is on the horns of a self-fulfilling prophecy...IOW, she psyched out her shareholders...should never have opened her mouth...NLY has always paled, ever since AGNC was born.........)

    So, IOW, the only thing that has changed is technical, and that is FEAR. Take advantage. We'll all(well maybe not some...;-)) be saying, @ Dec EX, "Wow, imagine if we had bought AGNC, on the lows, in November 2012...there was an opportunity"......

    Good Trading!!

    DocReits

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    • Well, if NLY leverages its low cost structure into the commercial sector returns will vault - rates are much higher over there. And, iy appears that's what they are prepared to do.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Doc,

      Have you looked at any mReits outside of AGNC lately? Or she still the only girl for you?

      • 1 Reply to jdg8002
      • Hi Jdg! Good to hear from you...

        As soon as Wed morning broke with the news of the election, I bailed on everything, except AGNC and WMC. I had NYMT, four different mReit Preferreds, PSEC and FSC. I am way upside down on WMC to the tune of about 30,000 in the hole, on paper yesterday...with Short Puts. My BE is 21.00 on the Jan contract. If I am assigned I will ride them, and if not I will roll them @ January OPEX to latest month open, at that time.

        If WMC is up near 21.00 @ Dec EX, I will exit. It was an interesting experiment, as after awhile I reconciled myself to being down the money and own the shares, with a calm over further decline as I was ready to collect the dividends and make it back over a year or two, in a worse case scenario.

        Quite a difference from my white knuckle days with short Calls on the ^OEX. There's only open space above your head there,( IOW, the sky is the limit), for your losses. No shares to collect, no more of that; in fact, I am tempering my ventures in short Puts by doing them all in spreads, presently, and hopefully, in the future, to limit downside risk. Gosh, even this old granite guy is evolving...;-)

        Best,

        DocReits

    • Thanks doc, I am in for 960 jan. 30 calls. A move to 32.50 is huge for me. I am trading for book, and you are right on over the fear factor.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to ben9471
      • Good for you Ben,

        I am praying for a Merry Christmas for all of the AGNC longs as we come through this most interesting of times. We'll hopefully be talking next year , this time, about 'Election 2012' and the fearful sell off of the mReits.

        I think you will do quite well with your position. My furthest out position is also BE @ 32.50...so we are in this together, my friend, once again...how many years has it been??

        Best to you Ben,

        DocReits

    • Wow, finally something on topic. I thought I'd walked into a daycare center there for a little bit... all the crying, petty fighting, and whining in this place. I guess a run from 36+ to 28+ will do that.

      I was looking at the Dec 29/28 spread for .69 today, but I want to hold off buying until I see some sign of strength. Today was good, but I want to see it sustain the $29's for a few days.

      • 2 Replies to jdg8002
      • Hey Jdg,

        Bet you wished you had picked up a few 1000 of those 28/29 Bull Call Spreads. I am looking to add to my 29/30's for .60 or better, on weakness. We'll all be singing the C,W,S song before EX, over the sweet , sweet halcyon days of mid November 2012, when AGNC danced in her late Autumn gown, in the moonlight @ 28+.

        I remember 28+, it was a very good year. We had our chance....rare event. If she dances by again and the wind whisks the hem of her dress aside, revealing those graceful ankles, my advice is to grab them with both hands....;-)

        My BE's are 29.60, 30.40, and 32.40, in even lots. Looking for further additions below 30 BE. Might get rare quickly......we'll see....

        Best,

        DocReits

      • Hi Doc,
        Still no doing spreads but bet alot of the double I had on previously gotten Jan14 (yes Jan 14) 25 calls @ 5.00- so i figure 30 in over a year is doable in that time frame.

        What are your thoughts on WMC for a special divi?

 
AGNC
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