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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • hatedahft hatedahft Nov 17, 2012 9:21 AM Flag

    This week was a test

    I'd hold off on the victory parade because I think the shorts learned how easy it is to take down the Mreits. It makes me think they will be back.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Hey Hatedahft,

      Don't get swept away in the thinking that shorts had anything to do with last week. Go to shortsqueeze and note the volume of short interest this past week(under 4 million) which is the mean.

      Even at the 52 week highs in July at 12+ million, that would not have moved the dial much last week when roughly 75 million shares traded hands, from the weak hands to the strong. This was pure and simple panic selling, across the entire mReit sector. Great opportunity, which we might see again before the end of the year.



    • More selling ahead I hope as I'd like to add more calls. I've been inspired by Xion's all-in approach and had planned to chuck the 5% rule this time but missed buying at the bottom ... hooray for us if this stock hits BV or better by jan.

      I'd like to think the buy back is done - that maybe Mr. Kain's presentation @ BofA on Tuesday followed by the heavy volume buying end of the week was intended as a one-two punch by mgmt to turn pps around. If so, mgmt might have spent its 500m and we re-visit the 28s or 29s before the big move up. Probably wishful thinking on my part. Maybe more selling ahead between ex div and end of year and another buying opp then, I hope.

      Doc, fwiw, I thought the MLPs were a worthwhile trade, that the market just picked the wrong time to take a big dump.
      Best o' luck all

    • So will the longs. Good for traders.

    • They may be back. But once again we are reminded that the sector will trade around book value. Plus/minus. But there will be a reversion to the mean. So when you get #$%$ who say that they will buy one of the better ones (AGNC for instance) down 40%-50% from book value, that creates panic. But always keep in mind that these REITs are giant customers of wall street firms. Those firms lend these guys many billions of dollars. These same firms may let the sector get too cheap, like this week. But they will also issue buy recommendations when that happens. Wall street has no interest in seeing this sector go away. The emotion this week was very interesting to watch. A lot of weak hands got shaken out.

    • Since you are telling others what to do, you should hold off on the short parade, its figs like you that think the shorts have unlimited resources. The idiots and amateurs are selling and shorting. they will get buried when AGNC is trading back above $34 this year.

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