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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Nov 26, 2012 11:37 AM Flag

    All Quiet on the Western Front...;-)

    Hey Jess,

    I am not an expert on Fibonacci. My understanding of it is that investors "like" certain values. Those percentages I listed are those values commonly seen once a bottom(support) or top(resistance) has been found. It is not based so much on time, in that the time to the bottom, may or may not be the time to the next top.

    Since we had an 8.70 loss since the high in Sept, the next resistance should be(Fibonacci) 50% of that or 4.35 added to the low of about 28.08(?) so 32.43. The theory goes that if we sail through last support the retracement down to the next support will be in Fibonacci steps of support and resistance also. How quickly that occurs is driven by externals. How the public reacts to those externals follows the sequence.

    Whether this has merit or not, I believe that is the rudimentary gist of Fibonacci market sequences. Others more knowledgeable than myself are welcome to expand upon or correct my thinking.

    I am hoping for that 100% retracement before EX....;-)

    Good luck!

    DocReits

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • We are currently 20-25 trading days out from assumed EX Dec 21/28. If I understand Fibonacci correctly, the 62% fan line intersects that distance out from last Friday at about 33 PPS.

      Using another approach, the average increase for the last 17 quarters from 20 and 25 days before EX-1 is 8% and 9%. Using last Friday's close and those increases would put us in the 34-34.5 range.

      This quarter is not a typical quarter compared to the others, and am leary of my graph predictions, but would probably favor a high about 33 if forced.

 
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