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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • xxavatarxx xxavatarxx Nov 27, 2012 2:31 AM Flag

    OT Facebook

    Doc doesn't this work based on Olee's thinking?
    a) They seem over-bought
    b) Dec 25.50 Puts for .35 - .40. Close today was 25.94 .
    c) Hope they drop.

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    • My silly goose.

      FB is fairly valued at 19, which is why I didn't short FB during the big lockup even though many others did.

      Now how high will FB go? IPO price? No, there's a reason why FB dropped like a rock after the IPO, everyone thought it was way too expensive.

      30? Maybe. Even so, FB dropped from 30 to 20 in a week.

      Still this can be a bad trade based on timing alone. I was right about shorting AMZN at 259, I was just off on the timing.

 
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