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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Dec 3, 2012 8:52 PM Flag

    The real options trade for AGNC

    Well done IWB,

    I had those also last month at .45 credit. They are indeed the "safest" spreads for BE, out there, IMO. I saw them as too safe for my thoughts on AGNC's run and a waste of greater opportunity. Waste is maybe too strong of a word. With Short options there is always a risk in being assigned , no matter the strike. I will only allow myself to be assigned as many contracts as I can pay for. So, I need to be frugal in the allocation of contracts.

    Your 80 contracts , if assigned, will need $240,000 to purchase or about $120,000 in cash. From previous posts, I know that is no problem for you, but others are reading.

    Getting back to your "risk/reward" statement, I obviously disagree since I rolled out of that position of yours to avail myself of the opportunity for a higher run in PPS which I am expecting for AGNC. consevatively, the 33/30, for a 2.10 credit gives you a BE of 30.90, which is 1.20 higher than your BE, but it gives you 7x the reward, if we hit 33 by EX.

    I used to trade the OTM spreads, which I agree, have a lower BE, and therefore less risk of not reaching your BE, but they place you actually more vulnerable on risk/reward(the ratio, which also has the reward side). The reason, as you already demonstrated, is if we have a cataclysmic event and end up at 29 or less at OPEX you lose over three times your credit. So you are risking over 3x your reward. If, on my suggested trade we end up at 30 or less, my trade risks less that .5x my credit. That is a 6x risk difference between the two trades, on loss of capital on cataclysmic event.

    I was trading thousands of contracts and just came up nervous a few times thinking I am SOL if we go down much further by OPEX for this .20-.30 credit I was receiving.

    So I understand your position, since I have been trading that way for the last couple of years. I recently changed and will let you know, by the 21st, if it paid off....this time....;-)

    Good Luck to all longs,

    DocReits

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Erratum:

      ""So you are risking over 3x your reward. If, on my suggested trade we end up at 30 or less, my trade risks less that .5x my credit. That is a 6x risk difference between the two trades""

      Should read:

      ""..risking over "2x" your reward.....That is a "4x" risk difference...""

      DocReits

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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