Usually a month after the quarterly we get dividend and Ex-date announcement, 3 weeks/month time from there for Ex-date, and 3/4 weeks from there is the pay date. This time the Ex-date/dividend announcement is pushed out atleast a week to 10 days already. What is throwing things out of whack here or is it out of sequence at al... am I reading too much....
Bloomberg is wrong about the amount. The dividend amount will be lowered to 0.80 based on what Gary has been saying as of late... He continues to talk about lower returns and yields and net interest spreads only can afford 0.80. Also, AGNC doesnt want to pay out book value. So even with the roll over there.. i strongly believe they will pay excise tax on that. So you are really looking don't look at yield and think, oh it will be a $1.25 dividend. No. No. No. It's a 80c dividend with the prospect of a dividend cut to $0.50 later if the margins keep shrinking. Do I think that will happen? No one can say.. but the margins are widder today than in september. So thats positive news.. but as the fed keeps printing.. we could easily see a recover of MBS and moving to all time highs.. that would result also in higher prepayments. So it's an extremely difficult environment for MREITS. Those buying at deep discounts to book value will be rewarded as AGNC is very good at protecting book value, but don't expect dividend cut pressures to ease until the fed gets out of the market. That said, a dividend of 0.80 looks stable here at these market levels as long as the economy remains in ok shape. As the economy recovers, the yield on MBS will go up, ahead of fed policy. thats what will give us the widder spreads. If the economy doesn't recover, or is slow to recover, those spreads will tighten back up.
AGNC's predicted announcement of the 12th sounds about right. MITT has been the first out of the gate the last two quarters for the sector (I didn't look back any further than that). They announced on the 6th and 7th of the month the last two times.
Ive seen lots of times companies hint at a future cut in the dividend in a current earnings report. Last report we got was they thought it might be harder to make money but they still felt there was opportunity and they felt no reason to freak out about it. This company, with the money they have in hand, I see no way, no how, they cut the dividend this qtr. I see the potential for it in the future, but I would look for a hint to that in earnings release prior to it actually happening. They can pay this dividend regardless. Why rock the boat? That isn't a smart thing to do.