Basically buying it sub-$30 currently after adjusting for the dividend
The ex-div date is only a couple of weeks away.
Even if the dividend gets cut to $4 next year (still an "if"), you still get a 13.3% dividend yield at that rate using the (dividend adjusted) $30 share price today, which is roughly 8% below current BV.
BV preservation is job 1 for this management team and hedge ratios are very high as a result. So you have some degree of protection buying below BV today.
Mortgage spreads are also wider today than at 9/30/12, which is an oppty to get higher NIMs on current purchases and even book some gains in the future as these mortgages appreciate if the Fed continues to bid aggressively for lower coupon assets. Also repo rates are temporarily elevated and should tick down 10-15 bps as we get into January, which should also boost new investment spreads.
Buying now @ $31.00 and collecting the div -- is a win win .. i agree with oldschoolbuilder .. I never heard of cum-div .. If you buy now, then you get the div in a few weeks .. No dividend .. need be announced? What are you taking about? I think next div is $1.25 and the next one after that also $1.25 .. With a stock price of $34.00 by March 2013 .. And I'm betting on it ... Rich