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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • slegermark slegermark Dec 6, 2012 8:18 AM Flag

    Money, meet mouth

    I like the agnc price but market madness has shown it will punish a good bet. If skitty cliffishness takes hold in the second half of dec, reasonable dec calls will be worthless. Crunching probabilities now on a strangle move.

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    • The only reason this sold off yesterday is because I bought a call position. Someone needs to send the MM's a message that they can go F themselves. Not this time. You can run it down all you want and have AGNC's buyback kick in. If you want my money, you'll have to swallow AGNC's 500 million so ram that up your piehole. I'm solid, and I'll ride it into the ground if thats how you wanna play. In 2 weeks, when the full divi is announced, and all the money that people have in other special dividend stocks moves here, I'm gonna laugh at you. This thing will pop, the div run is late because div buyers have money elsewhere. That will change in the next 10 days.

    • The strangle is too risky. You're better off with the vertical put spread. Sell say 160 contracts of the 30 $ put and BUY the $29 put for 160. Go for at least a net credit of 0.30. You make 5k if the stock is above 30, and your max loss is 11k. Thats my trade but you can scale it to whatever you are willing to invest.

      • 1 Reply to instantwinbutton
      • gotta go cut firewood now. But my brain enjoys pondering these suggestions while my hands are busy.
        I like the trade, say for a later opex, like jan. Post kick-the-can deal, things will be more predictable and an mReit selloff less likely.
        WHZ was at 19 in early november. As soon as the .76 distribution was announced it lost 4 points in one week. It was insane, all my nov itm calls expired worthless.
        Been taking one asskicking after another this autumn. Except for my puts post election.

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