I like the agnc price but market madness has shown it will punish a good bet. If skitty cliffishness takes hold in the second half of dec, reasonable dec calls will be worthless. Crunching probabilities now on a strangle move.
The only reason this sold off yesterday is because I bought a call position. Someone needs to send the MM's a message that they can go F themselves. Not this time. You can run it down all you want and have AGNC's buyback kick in. If you want my money, you'll have to swallow AGNC's 500 million so ram that up your piehole. I'm solid, and I'll ride it into the ground if thats how you wanna play. In 2 weeks, when the full divi is announced, and all the money that people have in other special dividend stocks moves here, I'm gonna laugh at you. This thing will pop, the div run is late because div buyers have money elsewhere. That will change in the next 10 days.
The strangle is too risky. You're better off with the vertical put spread. Sell say 160 contracts of the 30 $ put and BUY the $29 put for 160. Go for at least a net credit of 0.30. You make 5k if the stock is above 30, and your max loss is 11k. Thats my trade but you can scale it to whatever you are willing to invest.
hmm, lets see. Who was the smarter person.... The guy who bought MTGE at $25.10 and sold you the $25 call for 0.67... netting 0.57 for a couple weeks... (GUARANTEED RETURN! + POSSIBLE DIVIDEND IF THE STOCK IS BELOW $25, IF NOT THEY KEEP 0.57 WHICH IS OVER HALF THE TOTAL DIVIDEND VALUE FOR 2 WEEKS TIME) Or you.. the buyer of this retarded option? BTW i probably sold you that option today. Enjoy.
I am just kidding about selling you the option, but seriously. Unless you are terriblely capital constrained, theres no reason for that. The overall volume on that option was 8 contracts. so you control 800 shares at most, but the last trade shows it took place at 0.70. The trading fees are such a larger percent of that trade... I bet your brokerage is happy.