My take on the upcoming dividend - deliberately starting a new thread
The previous thread was getting a little bothered for me, so I thought I would post my guess (and that's what it is, though slightly educated) about the upcoming dividend.
Keep in mind this company has a history of EARLY ANNOUNCEMENT when it cuts (i.e., when it cut from $1.40 to $1.25).
So my reading of its financials (with my less than M.B.A. prowess, but still some care) is that the $1.25 quarterly divvy may not hold forever, or even through 2013, but that it can afford it at least one more quarter. Thus my prediction is we get $1.25 for the current quarter, with an accompanying (or following, within a few weeks) of a lower rate in the future.
Do I have any inside, nonpublic information? Of course not, but here on the message board is my prediction, for others to take potshots at when and if it falls flat :)
I will go on record for $1.25 this quarter as well, banking on it, with Jan 31s and 29s. I dont know what to think about 2013 yet, there are just too many variables at play right now. But I believe the div is safe this quarter.
I believe AGNC will announce on 12/12/12 that it will be increasing its dividend back to $1.40 because the company accumulated $1.52 per share of indistributed income as of 9/30/12, significantly higher than the $0.85 in undistributed income it acumulated a year earlier ( 9/3011).