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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • garbonzo_123 garbonzo_123 Dec 14, 2012 8:03 PM Flag

    Doc's Victory Dance

    Come on Doc – I think you are entitled to one lap around the money tree chanting “told you so – told you so”! Congrats to all the longs that hung in there.
    Best –

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    • I hope you are right, but now is not the time for any victory laps. The market has a way to deflate "irrational exhuberance" if you know what I mean...

    • Thanks Garbonzo and all Longs!

      I was saying this past week that AGNC has never had an EX date before options expiration in the 4th Q(Dec), since AGNC's birthday May 2008. Peter, myself and I believe AL joined in that chorus, together with asserting our belief in 1.25 being maintained. Hey Instantwinbutton, what happened to your prediction of .80??...;-)

      Hey Ray!...what was that you were saying about "FOR SURE" we would have EX before the 21st...

      Sorry..just love those adamant predictions ...;-)

      I was beginning to believe some of that business(not the .80, which was ridiculous) with all of those saying EX would be before the 21st as the MM's had the Puts priced that way, until yesterday..then I smiled. Because I figured that the MM's guessed(knew) that management was running out of time for the week(+) window needed between announcement and EX and therefore it was, minute by minute, becoming more apparent that the EX would be after the 21st.

      I looked to see if I could pick up any more of the short Dec Puts but they were all re-priced today, and then the announcement. I was hoping and praying for the EX after OPEX, but, as close to the 21st as possible, and BINGO, the 24th(Monday). Therefore the Jan options contract adds no advantage over Dec(unless any believe we will see the PPS north of the day before EX by Jan OPEX). My prediction on the FC is that we wait until Dec 31st for kicking the can or go over the cliff(more likely). That will not do well for Jan. I do have a few Jan31Calls also, which will go bye, bye this next week.

      More importantly, all of my short Puts, have the 1.25 dividend removed now, in their premium. If I can't get the ask right on the short Puts by the close on the 21st, I will short the corresponding shares at the bid, and ride the options into OPEX, washing the short shares. Now we need that run to 34+...what a week this next one should be...

      Congrats again to all longs!! Have to love this stock....;-)


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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