Looking at the last week before EX, of the past 17 quarters of AGNC, the average increase over the close on EX-5 day, (Monday in the present case), is $0.60. The first four quarters all exceeded $1 increase, but if they are eliminated, the average increase of the last 13 quarters drops to $0.30.
In 11 of the 17 quarters, the high occurred in the last two days before EX, although in four quarters, the high was on EX-5, (yesterday for this quarter). All these numbers were based on daily closing prices. Results might be somewhat different using the daily highs.
How many of those quarters was it trading 2 dollars below book? I see a Fed caused #$%$, and then overturned by maintained dividend. This stock started to run before the fed meeting, then it got shaken, then full dividend was announced. I think 32-33 is fair, all things considered. In all those other prior quarters there was a long period for the stock to gain momentum and move and then settle on a price near ex. I dont think what we have seen here this quarter is like any other. I think we will see a bigger than normal move (positive correction because selling was fear of dividend cut), and I think it will run right up till the 21st.
I'm more interested in what the recent trend is in historical data. The last 4 Q dividends had the highest close on the day B4 EX(2) or on the day B4 that(2). Their one week gain to those values was an average of .58, which would place us approx. at 31.52+ by this Th or F. The difference , this time, is that we had a major sell off and weakening last week. We also did not ever have the precedence of a major economic dilemma deadline exactly one week after EX, so IMO, all hinges on that resolution this week.
I might buy back in after exday when the fear sets in. I had a ING Preferred that paid a 40 cent Dividend and PPS dropped over a dollar and stayed there. Fear of being on the wrong end of a position going into a possible recession.