Happy Birthday Doc,
Looks like the end of the world as we know it in regards to AGNC. Hope we all escape with as little damage as possible, but I think it will be severe.
Good Luck to all.
Happy birthday Doc - I had call options that the world wouldn't end - they are the only ones worth selling. After today I'm going to be 100% in gold, silver and cash. I intend to stay there until the propeller heads in Washington figure it out.
Happy Birthday Doc.
I am now 100% cash, hoping to survive the end of the world, and Congress!
AGNC was brutal to me this Q, but it could have been much worse...
At least I made something on BMY.
Thanks Roy and OJ,
Brutal year indeed. Little better than doubled my trading capital, which made about a 6-8% gain in my total portfolio. Could have been worse indeed. The MLP's ate a lot of my lunch. Sometimes I am amazed that those, like me, who are 100% option traders return anything, and it doesn't for most traders over the long run. In fact. most option traders lose, often big, and quit.
That is why I harp on preservation of capital, so much. Sometimes I will trade as few as 10 contracts, just to test the waters. When you lose on that few it doesn't hurt as much as diving in all at once. Sure, you think 'darn!', when you are correct and you imagine 'what if' I had entered large..that is where discipline comes in, and I am preaching to myself, like when I took my largest hit(10k), this year, on a play I knew little about and it went south. I should have gone deep ITM and played 1/3 the contracts. But I had stars in my eyes for the big score(greed).
And that's just it, managing greed, on the one side, and fear on the other. Primordial vestiges of our hunter, gatherer instincts. The hunter is greedy and the gatherer is fearful. Let me know how you manage those impulses?
I want to trade the cliff now, with our beloved. I am looking hard at the 13JanPut Butterfly of 32/30/28. Buy the 32 and the 28, sell the 30, in a 1/2/1 ratio for .80 debit, or less, after today. BE between 28.80 and 31.20. The reason...AGNC has never traded above its close on its Dec DBEX by Jan OPEX. With the cliff it makes even more sense. Secondly, 28.80 should be support, although we did hit 28.08(I believe) recently(briefly), and that low should bring in the longs, for buying. 30 is the sweet spot for 1.20/spread profit, whereas the max loss is your .80 debit, outside the BE's.
Just a thought on a nice potential trade. Be careful as we might see a lot of waves if we do go over the cliff.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think, once the fear abates, that AGNC will continue on just fine, together with MTGE and WMC. It will be, once again, a great opportunity to pick up more shares or Long positioned options.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Happy B Day Doc! I exited all my AGNC and MTGE shares yesterday,will invest in PSEC after it's ex date 12/27.Will reinvest in REITS after new rates are announced in March,keeping the dividend at $1.25 is not likely.Preservation of capital is rule # one,once they announce new rate and PPS adjusts it should be good for awhile,the divi runs should return.
I'm thinking about buying some puts in AGNC after ex date,pps should continue lower with no fiscal cliff resolution ,right?