I would think that taking long investments in mREITs should involve a large amount
of portfolio and MBS market research. If this is done before an investment is
made, then why would anyone complain or fret about an individual security
price movement after the trade ? The transaction is done, now its a lot of worry
for what purpose ??
Either your knew or you didn't at the time you went long AGNC. Why did you
get "in above $ 31", at the time you did ? You should know if this "Freakin' dog
will ever hunt again" BEFORE you initiated your AGNC position. Or, in other words,
what is your opinion of the low coupon, low balance agancy MBS market, in 2013,
in light of the current Fed liquidity actions ?
The agency MBS are priced at relatively high levels compared to prior years. What
has a higher probability of occurrence in 2013, 100 basis pt move down MBS yields
or a 100 basis pt move up in MBS yields ? Maybe this is what the mREIT market
is telling you via the AGNC price action.
Thanks for your advice jm20. I'm glad your crystal ball is working so well that you can predict future economic conditions, where interest rates are headed, market direction, activity out of Washington, dividend cuts or hikes, Fed actions, et al before you purchase a stock. Good for you.
By the way, since my holdings are in an IRA, I don't have the same flexibility many of you have for playing options as a hedge.
You are keeping track of Ave $/share with Excel, right? The beautiful thing about AGNC is they will give you back $5.00 (4x$1.25) in 12 months time.. How many times have you been in a mutual fund (As an example) that doesn't do anything? (No Div., No stock gain).
Good luck to you in 2013..SG
I keep track of everytning in Microsoft Money. Plus, I have both Schwab StreetSmart Pro and StreetSmart Edge with all the technical tools, charts, et al.
This is the only holding in which I am currently underwater. The divy next month will reduce that, but it's discomforting to think I'll have to wait another divy cycle to break even. No telling where the pps will be by then. The further down the road I have to wait to B/E, the greater the chances some other economic negative will show its ugly head.
I think lots of investors are cashing in their LT Capital Gains before 12-31-12.
I expect the market to drift down thru the end of the year.
If we don't get a tax deal, put in stop losses and wait until the smoke settles.