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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Jan 1, 2013 1:35 PM Flag

    Happy New Year!!

    Happy New Year to everyone!! This last year has been a tough one for many and others not so tough. To the latter Congrats!! That goes to Rim and Ray especially as Rim made his 169% and Ray made his 300k+ profit(probably 2%..;-)).

    To those, like myself, who made a profit, although much smaller, Congrats again!! To the former, who suffered losses, it is a New Year with lessons learned and hopefully much success ahead in 2013. I have to admit, I am a numbers guy and have always disdained the number "13". Its not the superstitious thing about "13", it is a visceral distaste for prime numbers. I love even numbers and not so much odd, but I hate prime numbers.

    You know, those numbers which are divisible by only themselves and one. Hey, I don't care for people like that either, now that I think about it. You know, the ones who are always about themselves being number one.

    Those numbers equal 2,3,5,7,11.13.17,19,23,29,31,37,41,43,47,53,59,61,67,71,73,79, 83,89,97,101. Correct me if I missed any, but I think that's it for the age group(discussions on 1 being or not being prime excluded...sorry...another thread). I can spot a prime number just by the taste of it, very nasty and sour, like cilantro(some love it, others hate it...must be genetic). If you are older than that, then God Bless You!! The 10's group with only one prime number are the 90's. By that time you need a break!!

    I had a Prime birthday recently. It will be 6 more years, if I make it, until another prime birthday, thank God!!

    Anyways, 13 is a prime number and we are here. Yayy! We're not dead, and that is enough to celebrate without all the other cool stuff we can celebrate, like family, health, fame and fortune. Yes, getting back to the fortune part. We should, IMO, with the eccentricities in Congress circling zero, arrive at a market place tomorrow of irrational exuberance. The spin will be that Happy Days with the Fonz, are here again! 300+ move in the DOW and the mReits will sail with them.

    Should last all week. Those betting the other way...sorry. I believe you will get your chance but not BE by Jan OPEX(18th). I think there will too much momentum for the sailors who have been at sea. They've been pent up for awhile now and the ship has come into port. Look at those smiling faces of Harry the Reed and Nancy and Barrrrackk. A sinister smirk is even on the #$%$'s face. For Pete's sake, they are giving us the "ALL CLEAR". We can come out of hiding now they're saying.

    All the gazillions of dollars folks like myself have in cash are now safe to throw out on the table. The Roulette Wheel is hot and I pick black, even though I did not vote that way. Congrats to all Longs who held in there as we should see 30+ by Friday. Wow BATESAT in a week.

    This will be the "rush" on exuberance and then the wave will recede. Alas, like the wave moving AGNC's ship to higher moorings the wave must abate, and lower water marks made. That will be a great opportunity to buy as Earnings is approached.

    Another challenging year?? Perhaps. But to those savvy(lucky?) enough to know what "Red skies in Morning, Sailor's Warning, Red Skies at Night, Sailor's Delight" means, are likely to time the weather right. I just jettisoned 20% of my WMC short Puts by shipping them to July as volatility was on the roof and the deal was too sweet. I tried to throw the whole crew overboard, but the Quartermaster would only allow 20%.

    I wish all shipmates a very prosperous and Happy New Year. Lets make some money. We have a great chance in 2013, because, as we all know, 2013 is NOT prime...;-)

    DocReits

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    • Way to go Taymere,

      I've been thinking about your trade when you first posted it as I watched the stock price continue to climb. Almost bought some myself last week, but didn't have the nerve to ride out the FC. Rewards come to the brave.

      RIM

      • 1 Reply to rimboomer
      • Hi Richard, Thanks very much. I lost on my SPY puts but owning them definitely emboldened me to trade through the FC.

        Update, I closed my WMC position today. I bought some on the last day before ex-dividend, Dec 27th, for $21.18 and I also bought some ex-dividend for $19.68 and I sold all of them today for $21.14. The sell wasn't a bearish call on WMC, it was profit taking in excess of the quarterly dividend in a one week holding period on a trade that worked out even faster than I hoped. Those 7% in one week trading gains add up if I keep the money moving.

        Have you researched RESI at all? I haven't researched it yet but I will this week. I missed the post IPO sell off entry point on SBY but this looks like this is such a point for RESI. I haven't researched it yet but I am eager to hear what the DD and other think of it.

    • Happy new years all! My first closed trade in 2013 was green, bought Roy at $4.30 on Dec 27th and sold it today for $5.60. I traded coal miners in 2012 and made some money on JRCC bonds, but I am so so glad to be back in mREITs. The treasonous EPA made trading coal miners quite difficult, whereas the Fed makes trading mREITs as easy as pie. It's sad that government policy has so much sway in investing, ever more influence every year as we drift closer and closer to a communist dictatorship.

    • and good health to ye, Doc. This BB needs you around for a few more good years! (Don't forget to drink some of FltNurse's wine each day to stay in good health ... but not before you post here : )

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Happy New Year to you Doc and everyone else too : )

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Happy New Year Doc, Everyone!

      Have a prosperous 2013(3x11x61)!
      FOXY

    • I'm probably just paranoid, but it seems to me that Washington is playing politics to a degree I have never seen before. I think the Repubs don't like the deal, but don't have the horsepower to do much about it, and will be blamed for delays. Soooooo ... they might appear to be cooperative as possible [Senate Repubs mostly vote for the deal] while the House holds up the deal until they get more leverage closer to debt ceiling in two months. I don't know, and that is the problem: I don't know.

    • Happy New Year !!!

      ...and time for Congress to provide you more entertainment than the Bowl games. I'll bet a dollar this puppy gets booted to the new flock of clowns coming in on Thursday at noon. Tomorrow should be an interesting trading day to say the least.

    • Happy New Years to all and especially to you Doc.

      I'm not sure the rest of the week will be all that exuberant with the Repubs in the House not all that likening to what the Senate passed. I think Washington will have a cloud over it for longer than we want to believe. The Senate still hasn't addressed the spending cuts that really need to made. Unfortunately, Washington is made up of fearful leaders on both sides who can't bring themselves to make the tough decisions. How long will we voting citizens tolerate this incompetence?

      GL2UA and go AGNC.

      RIM

    • Happy New Year to all! It was quite a year – all the effort (analyzing numbers, buying, selling, buying options, cursing options, buying more options, cheering options, reading this MB, listening to my wife tell me we should put it all in real estate and to what end? I ended up down 0.04% for the year – Geezz what an effort. But hey – I’m not a quitter – I’m sitting in gold, silver, cash and waiting for the smoke to clear around March. The only prime I worry about is prime beef. Good luck to all.
      Best –
      Garbonzo

    • Happy New Year wishes from me as well.

      Although (or maybe because) I didn't trade in the last few months of 2012, it was indeed a profitable year (and would have been more so if it wasn't for a sizeable losing short puts trade on BP -- which I wrote about earlier). Now mostly in cash as well. Not planning to get into AGNC any time soon as I don't understand its fundamentals right now and I don't see any obvious chart patterns.

      So -- happy 3x11x61. Deep down, all numbers are made up of primes...

      • 1 Reply to ephort
      • A Happy New Years to you Ephort!

        Looking back at the roller coaster ride for BP this last year, I bet you had some OH S moments...;-)

        Curious, looking back, could you have come out of your trade with less of a loss at the present time today(1/01/2013), than the loss you suffered, by rolling forward to the furthest back dated contract month at the same strike as the original short Put credit?

        If you don't have the prices, you can give me the dates and the strike, and I can answer my own question. I am in an upside down position now and it would be instructive for me as well, I believe, for others.

        Thanks,

        DocReits

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