Thu, Jul 10, 2014, 1:38 PM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 2 hrs 22 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the posts
  • stockmeister3 stockmeister3 Jan 3, 2013 2:53 PM Flag

    FOMC minutes state that QE3 will end in 2013!!!

    For reasons that I articulated in earlier post - this is all very premature. SOME Fed officials suggest that the Fed MAY want to exit sometime in 2013. How does that impact mreits over the next 9-12 mos? What will these same Fed officials say/think 9-12 mos from now? Bernanke and Yellin both want to keep buying. If rates creep up even a little - refis grind to a halt - meaning there is very little new issuance - meaning that the Fed's share of the mkt buying new issuance gets even bigger % wise. Also the Fed is both committing new $$ and reinvesting $$ from their existing portolio. This 2nd part of their purchases keeps getting bigger as they acquire more and more mbs. The Fed Fed could stop committing new $$ and just reinvest their monthly principal & interest and still control the mkt.

    Also - as rates rise - the BV of AGNC's existing prepayment protected portfolio goes DOWN - offset to some extent by increases in the value of agnc'd hedges . but offset by the increased cost of new hedges.

    In short - predicting a Fed exit is premature and when/if it happens - the consequences of any such exit will be difficult to manage/ predict.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • All very true, but I trade AGNC not FOMC, and selling my Roy today at $5.6 for a 1.3x bagger over a one week holding period made me smile. It was nice to start the first closed trade of the year with a realized gain. A nice confidence booster, and I'll be back later.

      On a news basis, with Geithner leaving gives the GOPuxxies another leverage point on Mr. Stalin, (oops I meant Mr. Obama) in the debt ceiling negotiations. They can threaten not to confirm his next Treasury Secretary appointee to gain concessions. I am really looking forward to a volatile Spring 2013, AGNC price volatility spells massive trading gains for me.

 
AGNC
23.03+0.07(+0.30%)1:37 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.