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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • slegermark slegermark Jan 4, 2013 3:24 PM Flag

    Options pricing question. I just saw a disturbing flip in premiums that might signal a reverse.

    Yes it is in the basic sector [The Basic Materials economic sector consists of companies engaged in the extraction and primary refinement of chemicals, metals, nonmetallic and construction] dealing in tiO and i have been trading it for a year now. It is 82% insider held but still manages to trade 700k shares per day, ten times what mtge traded a year ago.

    . They managed to tank this thing last spring when it showed blow out fundamentals using your hypothetic scene in paragraph 5. Resulted in relentless carnage when by all rights it should have risen like its collegues who had great sales.

    I think after a 33% run in december, they tested the waters with a couple depressive attempts these lasst two days. As can be seen in the charts. They do this with MCP, also basic materials, all the fn time, which showed a mirror image to the kro chart today, so far.

    You are not familiar with the dome signature in daily charts. It is a variation on the sinewave,[ but occurs in isolation] that paired cocacola with something else this year, you commented on it yourself back then in summer. Those signatures did not exist in the pattern during the main run on kro until two days ago. Nor did they appear in daily charts before the days of hft... back in the 90's when I was last active.

    I think The flip in options pricing is a trap set. Cheap calls and expensive puts is the clue out of the blue, uncharacteristic. If you were eyeing this equity on a nice run in the last two weeks but the call premiums just a little pricey, then suddenly the price halves itself and you think, "I am jumping on that!' Boom the same thing as last spring happens and it tanks until its pe is 3. I am thinking I should take my now halved profit and leave before they make their move. Although, if it is a trap, they would have to lure in enough option acivity before it is sprung.

    I do not know what this means, but the May atm 20calls have open interest of 500 and today's volume is 1000. The call premiums have gone down while the stock price has gone up. AND the put premiums have gone up when they should be going down on a rally. That might be enough volume to make it worthwhile. 100k times a five point drop, plus you get to keep premiums.

    Short interest is also last reported at 30% of float.
    There is more than my paranoia running here.

 
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