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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jan 5, 2013 6:10 PM Flag

    2 year total yields for 8 mREITs

    I did some research this morning. The NASDAQ web page has a convenient listing of historical dividend payouts so I used this to do a calculation of what one would have made if they bought these stocks 2 years ago, collected the dividends and then sold yesterday. The total yield is given first relative to the price two years ago and then the yearly yield. Last is the average yield of all 8 had you bought a basket of all of them. REM is an mREIT ETF. Strangly it did worse than the basket.

    REM 15.7% 7.5%
    AGNC 42.7% 19.4%
    TWO 46.3% 21.0%
    CYS 34.8% 16.1%
    HTS 13.8% 6.7%
    NLY 13.3% 6.5%
    ARR 22.3% 10.6%
    CIM -13.2% -6.8%
    IVR 28.1% 13.2%

    Average 25.47% 11.76%

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    • Too bad MTGE wasn't around that long. I can see how TWO could beat AGNC, but if it beat MTGE that'd be interesting.

      I'm also cautious about extrapoloating this into the future. TWO's div is likely to be more fragile than MTGE or AGNC's. Then again, it could be the bomb as well. It's just more volatile, imo.

    • REM is pretty loaded with NLY right.
      Raybans.. you might want to try Ychart as well.
      With that you can just switch it to total return and display it as a percentage.
      You can compare multiple stocks on the same chart as well so it's pretty nice.

      Hopefully your seeing the same as others.

      This is Ycharts 2 year return from 1/6/2011 - 1/4/2013.
      I added SPY to compare against a major index and dropped CIM.

      TWO = 65.07%
      AGNC = 50.52%
      CYS = 33.09%
      IVR = 32.5%
      ARR = 24.90%
      SPY = 19.91% (S&P INDEX)
      REM = 16.17%
      HTS = 16.14%
      NLY = 9.88%

    • Nice RayB,

      I only checked NLY since your numbers sounded WAAAYYY too good for that dog.
      I get 11.4% total for the two years, and less than 6% on the yearly. Buy JNK instead. At least JNK calls itself Junk, and you get a higher yield(17.5% for the two years). Those still holding NLY haven't figured it out yet....;-)


      • 1 Reply to reits_r_us
      • I'm not sure why we get different results for NLY. I checked my numbers again and they seem to be correct. The last 8 dividend payout numbers that NASDAQ list are as follows:


        The stock prices that I used are $14.84 current and $17.35 for two years ago.

        The yield calculation was the sum of these 8 numbers plus the difference in the stock prices divided by 17.35. The main reason NLY has done so poorly is because their stock price is down $2.51 in two years which is a 16.9% decline. AGNC on the other hand is up 8.5% and TWO is up 18.1% TWO's stated 18.8% yield on yahoo is deceptive as they paid out more dividend this last time for reasons unknown to me. If you calculate their yield based on past dividends it's 13.7%.

        This would imply that AGNC's yield is more sustainable if one assumes that TWO's price appreciation must level off eventually. However if one considers that AGNC may have to cut their dividend then one might conclude differently. I don't see a small dividend cut by AGNC as problematic since this would still make them one of the top yielding stocks in the mREIT space and thus make them desirable to those wanting to accumulate mREIT stocks. If one considers their financials I suspect that such a cut is inevitable in the future as I don't see their earnings supporting a $1.25 dividend long term as it would cause them to exhaust their cash hoard. I can only imagine that most major investors know this and have priced it in already.

19.08-0.09(-0.47%)May 24 4:00 PMEDT