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Oh, and the speed with which gasoline demand will be decimated, halved will be astounding. As plugin hybrids proliferate, and people hear the clarion call of office mates who gas up once a month with their new plugin hybrids, we will see a fast tipping point.
The national trucking infrastructure is going nat gas. period.
An oil exporting, economically balanced America, still the worlds innovative engine and magnate of dreamers the world over.
Another follow up: the two guys who started Ledbury shirts in 08 were on Scarbourogh this morning.
These guys came out of B-school to confront a lunar landscape of job opportunities following the crash.
Now they have established the Ledbury shirts brand.
On the other end of the entreprenuerial spectrum, The 'gourmet' sandwich franchise JimmyJohns has spread like wildfire during these recession years. I interviewed the manager at one that recently opended in my region. He said the shop was opened by a couple of IT guys who started it up as their retirement plan.
Everywhere I look, I see economic ferment, innovation, investment. I turned on the TV one recent Sunday night and saw a paralyzed woman operate a robot arm with her thoughts.
This is all happening while Occupier Wall Streeters and Tea Partiers shout in self imposed darkness.
The world is a running man who now and than tumbles flat out, gets up, dusts himself off and continues to run miraculously uninjured, running faster, faster after each fall.
Herexhear...I'm really having trouble with your screen name (not to mention some of your thoughts)...Would it be "here squared", or "hear squared", or "there" (here x hear = there?) "I'm here, but I can't hear"?. That last one is kinda along the x div date thinking... after "x", whatever is next is over...therefore "can't hear"...anyway, if you wish to enlighten us, that would be great...otherwise, it's always good to have a little mystery in your life.
I basically think you are on the right track, with (what I think is)your main theme of everything is changing faster and faster and we won't even believe what has happened a few years from now. Moore's law could be revoked by the Supreme Court or just eventually prove unsustainable (like so much else on this planet), but, for now, it does seem to still be in effect. I think, like most futurists predictions, only part of what you are suggesting will happen, but some probably will. I don't think I can predict any of it, so I don't even try...be flexible and move in the direction that feel's right at the time, try to have no regrets, and make sure to remember to enjoy some of this life, as you move through it....and don't count on Mr. Bans2's predictions...we may not live that long :)
My "green" daughter bought a Prius. It will do 12 miles on a charge before the gasoline motor takes over. I have no doubt that they will improve them as time goes on. Electric motors might be a good match for a school or municiple bus that travels a certain number of miles per day but i dont want one for personal transportation.
The American Gas for No Car (AGNC) board is rolling along nicely today...Mr. 2u, your "green daughter" should be applauded for making the statement and effort to move in the right direction when it comes to energy demand. The gas motor doesn't ever "take over", it supplements, etc. I'm not about to argue the details of that, but the Prius, long after it's battery-only phase is exhausted is still providing a more gas-less drive than almost any other car.
There is a coming battery technology, I just heard about. The essence is the structure of the battery is sponge-like, rather than wafer-like, which has been the case since the start of batteries, I think. What this does, is shorten the distance the electrons must travel from one "plate" to the other. The result of that is longer-lasting batteries of the same size and weight, but...more importantly a battery that can recharge in as few as 2 or 3% of the time it takes normal batteries. Imaging pulling your PT Cruiser (just a guess) into the "gas" station and getting that 300 mile battery recharged in the time it would have taken to fill that 15 gallon tank with gas! That'll make electric a viable power source for cars, don't ya think?
I heard a group of car designers being interviewed, several years ago. They were asked to predict the future relative to power sources...ie gas, diesel, fuel cell, nuclear, hamsters on a wheel, etc. The consensus answer was electric because it is the only power source that can be produced in so many ways. You can burn wood, to make steam to run a generator, you can harvest directly from the sun, you can dam a river and produce it in hydro plants, you can even produce electricity by burning fossil fuels, who knew?! , etc, etc ....you get the point, I bet. If the motor pool was all electric, we could fuel it with whatever we have the most of and is cheapest to use (and doesn't render the world uninhabitable). That scenario would adjust, over time, to meet ever-changing energy resources.
I'm not a big fan of electric cars either, yet. But I think some support, rather than bashing would be a good thing. Once the recharge/battery-swapping-stations are a reality, and the single battery range can outrun my bladder, I'm in!
PS - to Doc. I think you have an alternative career waiting for you in science fiction writing. :)
Latest Volt'll do 50 miles now. That takes care of most daily commutes both ways.
It's going to get better as battery technology improves.
You can send your transportation dollars to Iran. I'll choose my local power company.