I tend to agree with Doc. The market is already pricing in a dividend cut. That's why it is trading with a 16% yield right now. If any dividend cut happens and it is a small cut (say $1.10), I'd expect a rally.
Actually, there are at least three uncertainties that put a lid on the price of AGNC stock: (1) possible dividend cut (and how much); (2) Congress's action/inaction of the debt ceiling and budget cuts; and (3) AGNC earnings for 4Q2012 + projected earnings for 1Q2013.
The last of these three will unfold first, then #2 and, finally, #1 concern in early March. The market doesn't like uncertainty and drives investors to the sidelines, waiting to see what happens. There can be big price swings on low volume OR little or no price movement during this uncertainty period through early March.