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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jan 23, 2013 11:11 AM Flag

    Why don't HFTs just start ramping AGNC into earnings now?


    Funny, I only recall the couple of days 6-8 months ago when the chart went robotic.

    Other than that, movement was explainable by money flows into the US from Greece, money flows back that way, Fed action, rate changes, SPO delays, and other nominal causes.

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    • Also think of all the times the whac-a-mole Algo plays this stock like a fiddle on low volume days.

      But the proof is in the pudding: I made that comment a week ago essentially predicting that it would be in the algos' interest to start ramping this stock into earnings. Look at the candle stick ignition yesterday on that gap up right in the morning. HFTs are positioning this stock for a breakout once it reestablishes its bullish uptrend. Coincidentally the 200-day is right up there at the BV price of $32.49! This gives perfect fundamental cover for what is nothing more than algos executing rudimentary TA. Nevertheless, watch for $32.49 to be broken before earnings and a giant breakout from there provided Kain delivers...

    • Inappreciate your reply but I think your big picture is missing a lot I think:

      1. The chart is robotic nearly every day. Care to bet we'll close at VWAP today?

      2. The 3 times AGNC flash-crashed in 2012 showed exactly how 99%+ of the volume in this ticker is HFT generated. See here for the vivisection of the most recent one in August:


      3. A lot of the factors you list are "good" explanations in hindsight for the general markets (if you believe them) but are mostly immaterial to AGNC (dont think Greek fund flows mattered much). Of course "fed action" describes about 90% of this market and its catalysts but recall AGNC rallied well after the QE3 announcement. It was at its highs of $35 (36.25 w/ dividend added back in) until October, so there was no sudden fundamentak change for this stock at all. Its bullksh trend was simply snuffed out as it failed to make new highs and once the various moving averages were broken the stock simply collapsed. Of course HFTs were there for the ride pushing the price down at the expense of gullible investors who thought the smart money knew something they didnt. It then joined the ranks of a popular 2012 market theme: churning in a pool of dead beta.

      4. Recall that AGNC tracked bonds for almost all of 2012. Suddenly after the announcement of QE3, bonds start to fall hard but mysteriously AGNC picks up a correlation to equities and rallies with them (that was the warning signal). The correlation to bonds having been obliterated, AGNC proceeded to track beta equities and collapsed almost exactly the same time APPLs decline started. Play with tthe charts here, the decline of e 2 stocks correlates almost perfectly in the latter half of 2012. Still think you werent being played by HFTs?

23.12+0.19(+0.83%)Jul 31 3:59 PMEDT

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