This was the first NTI thread.
It was started by ovi.
While the thread quickly morphed into a bullish thread, re-reading it makes me think that ovi was BEARISH on NTI.
A few weeks and a few trades in, I've managed to recoup 47% of my original NTI shares purchased at a cost-basis of 23.68(@29, currently UP 22.5%!!) per share.
The "spo" and a seemingly too quick rise in NTI's pps caused me to be overly cautious with this previously unknown-to-me entity.
Also, NTI was exhibiting a "heartbeat pattern" of a few %pts per day, from the spo until early last week.
Anyone loading at close then unloading most in the next mid-morning,
then repeating each day from the date of this leading thread
until a few days ago,
for the most part must have made a killling.
I tried this but was 3 days late to the party. :(
Still, I'm in,
and am VERY HAPPY to initiated and maintained participation in this here NTI stock runup.
Thanks again ovi. ;)
P.S. Hey Ray!
It's possible that your Tahitian Treat can be extended indefinately if this keeps up:
25000x2.00 per quarter can de-sand many cracks and crevices for a long time. :)
The over 22% return so far is hardly lime juice to the eye as well.
When you buy the Brando Estate I'm expecting an invitation I "couldn't refuse".
I'll move to the other side of the island and live in a small hut... but with a full kitchen :)
Fresh seafood and wild boar works for me.
You'd never see hide nor hair of me,
unless by choice,
save the appearence of a pineapple upside-down cake occasionally and not-so-mysteriously at your generous and sharing threshhold. :)
I just bought some NTI at 24.50.
I fiddled around at 24.35 and it got away from me.
It might go back down and probably will, now that I conceded.
I like the idea of a spo with no new shares.
That's why I bought.
Thanks for the informative thread guys.
Here's to a quick recovery,
You LIKE the idea of millions of shares driving down the value of our shares with no benefit to the company at all? I dont think you should be investing in the stock market.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I added to my NTI position at 38.80.
My total cost average is just over 24.32.
Yesterday I was tempted to "take the money and run" at 24.80.
Shoulda Woulda Coulda.
I don't day trade much and thought NTI was at a good price to start a position.
I still think so.
That's why I didn't sell yesterday and why I added today to lower that position.
We'll see, we'll see,
It sure does and I dont see continuing dividend to come close to $1.40. A lot of that first dividend came from IPO overflow money.
Be care care full and remember WHZ, IPO at $20 run up to $24+ and then down to $14+.
I don't think the shares were sold by the CEO. Rather by the General Partner. CEO resigned (not retired) because he'd fulfilled his role, to spin off the refinery operations. Handed off to co-CEO who is an oil/refinery guy. I'm in, finally, with a small position, after chasing it up and down the last week or so. Glad I got filled on this last dip. :-)
Here is some notes on NTI when I did some research back in early Dec 12.
From the prospectus:
"We expect within 60 days after the end of each quarter, beginning with the quarter ending September 30, 2012, to make distributions to unitholders of record on the applicable record date. We expect our first distribution will include available cash (as described below) for the period from the closing of this offering through September 30, 2012.
We do not intend to maintain excess distribution coverage for the purpose of maintaining stability or growth in our quarterly distribution or to otherwise reserve cash for distributions, and we do not intend to incur debt to pay quarterly distributions. We expect to finance substantially all of our growth externally, either by debt issuances or additional issuances of equity. "
From the 3Q12 Earnings release:
"Energy LP, declared a prorated quarterly distribution of $1.48 per unit payable in cash on November 29, 2012 to common unit holders of record at the close of business on November 21, 2012"
"Prorated cash available for distribution totaled $136.1 million for the third quarter 2012. As noted in Northern Tier Energy's IPO prospectus, the cash available for its first distribution includes cash for the period from the closing date of the IPO (July 31, 2012) through September 30, 2012"
So the latest divy was 1.48 which cost the company 136.1M. If I prorate the 1.48 divy to 3 months the divy would be .88. 3Q12 total cash from operations was 175M (92M units out) or 1.90 per unit. That amounts to a implied 15.1% divy yield. (early Dec prices).
You are misreading their last earnings announcement. If you look at their distribution calculation issued November 12, they backed out $60 million from cash available for distribution based on funds prior to IPO to reach the $136 available subsequent to IPO and the $1.48 distribution was based on only 2 months of earnings. Assuming same performance in 4rth quarter, prorate that up to to $2.24 for a full quarter.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thank you. NTI stock offering does not yield any money to the company. Therefore, I believe the stock is being sold by the CEO who is retiring right now [new CEO will be the other founder]. If correct, then the stock is not increasing the amount outstanding, just who owns it [the numbers I could find support this]. The dip in the price today is therefore not justified, and will disappear soon. Paid about a buck and a half last quarter on a $25 stock. Limited Partnership.