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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • faaqcee faaqcee Jan 22, 2013 8:41 PM Flag

    so....when do we sell agnc?

    Hey Sleger,
    Sourpuss says to "sell it all at the end of Jan."
    You say, "Naw...holding until earnings eve..."
    Earnings are Feb 4,a Monday, as per Yahoo,
    the 1st being a Fri.

    I think you guys are in agreement as to the time to sell, and I join you both in that opinion.
    Earnings eve is Fri. the first, and the end of Jan. is that Thurs.

    I say hold now for a rise, sell on the pre-earningsThurs.(or Wed the 30th) then buy the dip between then and Fri., if you are daring.
    Or, wait and buy after earnings if they are ok.

    The thing we really seem to be in total agreement is that AGNC will dip before Feb. 4.
    At this point there's a bit a "chicken game" until then.

    How far can we rise in one week?
    Imo, it could be another buck+/-, making AGNC a worthwhile hold until then.
    Shoot, it could make AGNC a decent 1wk. buy at this point, but my new AGNC money is tied up in NMM until the end of the week at least, so for me that's out.

    ~Our stellar AGNC management team has yet to fail us.~

    So, why not sell on the Thurs.(or Wed.!) and buy on the dip I feel coming immediately pre-earnings.
    Why sell at all?
    The "Bendicator Effect" sometimes causes at least a minor dip between the pre-earnings run and the earnings date, but not always if I remember correctly.

    If I miss the pre-earnings dip, say, if one should occur Mon. or Tues,
    I won't be chased out,
    and will add that Fri. regardless(with my NMM winnings!) of dip or not because of my confidence in AGNC's management team, the best in the business.

    If one should feel that the REIT gravytrain might be over, then one should sell before the end of next week and wait until the ER comes out, capturing profit and saving on Tums.
    It's possible to play it safe and still get one's shares back not much more expensively.
    Then, if Earnings are good, the .50-1.00 one might miss is but an insurance policy, with the pps moving on and up from there.

    Would that make possibly buying Puts next Tues. be a good option, pardon the pun, if one might think that a mere 3-4 day dip is upcoming?
    Not for me though, "Homey don't play that."
    I'm just throwing it out there. :)

    Good luck,

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