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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • jtrader64 jtrader64 Jan 30, 2013 11:32 AM Flag

    Re: Re: OT-NTI continued...

    Ray - You may already be aware of this but if not, here you go. It is from a SA article so I don't have a company source link for it:

    "Northern Tier Energy is taking down its only refinery for a major once every six years turnaround in April. That would impact the Q1 or Q2 distributions depending on how the board decides to reserve for the estimated 50 cents per unit cost."

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    • jtrader ...

      Yeah, I'm aware of that. As a CPA, I can say that the cost should not impact the Q1 results; it will impact the Q2 results because April is in Q2, of course. But Q2 results wouldn't be made public until August.

      Right now, I think the people who are looking for an eps of $2 per share for Q4 might be right. This is based mostly on the fact that the eps for the two months that the company was public in Q3 produced $1.48 ... for two months ... and I see nothing that would have reduced profitability in Q4. And, as I sit here, Brent has continued to go up in Q1. Market watchers are not expecting Brent to drop anytime some so this may persist through Q1. If it does, another $2 is not unlikely. NTI is in the unique position of using cheap mid-con oil for 100% of it's production. If NTI were to announce divies of $1.48 [Q3 already paid] followed by $2 and then another $2 .... well, let's just say that would be a positive development.

    • If you have equal amounts of AGNC and NTI your risk is reduced according to the Etrade risk calculator. My risk grade is only 52. Most stocks are 100 or more. You get 23 points diversification benefit because they are in unrelated industries ( holding equal amounts of these 2 stocks) Both look like they will pay $1 or more per share as well which will yield a very high dividend payout on a low risk rating. Is there anyone who thinks this combination or NTI is more risky than Etrade indicates? NTI has the highest ratings with Zacks and Reuters as well. Agnc has a good track record and good management and is a "hold" on ratings. Is this choice of portfolios a no brainer? Combined with PSLV to protect your investment held in a different account this seems like a decent investment. PSLV is like 200 risk grade( not figured into with the other 2 stocks) There are some insider sells on NTI; any comments on that. AGNC has an insider buy late last year. I give both NTI and AGNC a buy and all portfolios should have some silver or gold.

      Sentiment: Buy

 
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