Note that both of those oil companies do not pay significant divies ... about 2%. In contrast, NTI is going to pay it's free cashflow. If this was $1.00 [I think it will be more], then they have a 16% yield at $25.00. Even CLMT is only paying 8%. Once people see results from NTI, the PPS could rise to yield 10%, or a PPS of $40. The yield could even drop lower based on what other refiners pay [Hollyfrontier pays about 2% also]. And, the profit could be higher. The analysts have increased their 4th quarter estimate from $1.01 to $1.42, and it might still be too low. It is not too crazy to think that the stock could double from here ... that would be $1 million profit for Crazy Ray, not counting divies. It's not too late.
Good information, Ray. Thanks.
The one thing I have been wondering about though is why general partner did the SPO before earnings and the dividend if they were expecting it to be such a high number? Why not let the stock price move higher first?
I know they still own a large chunk but why not wait another month?
Hey "Crazy" Ray –
I have to say, I like your investment style.
Once you’ve done your DD and have the strength in your conviction, then you jump in with both feet.
Ummmm…….. that sounds very similar to Xion’s and my style – imagine that! :-)
The only difference with me is that I am still mostly a high risk – high rate of return kind of guy. 75% of my liquid capital is in the hands of VCs’ & Hedge Funds.
When we win, we win big and they take more than their ample share of the profits. :-)
I just get to “play” with the other 25%.
Sure do hope you make that million…then maybe $30k per year won’t like such a large sum!
All the best,
I think that NTI, ALDW and CVRR all present similar excellent opportunities in that they are refiners with recent IPOs just getting recognition, with excellent distributions and a strong secular tail wind based on the Brent/Cushing spread, not to mention the Brent/Clearbrook spread. Any thoughts from the NTI board on the raking among these 3?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nice thread guys. Did some d/d and decided to take a shot on Nti.
Sold 100 Feb $30 Puts for $3.50 and bought 151 Feb $30 Calls for .05 yesterday. I had an order in for 500 of $30 Calls but only got a partial fill. After today's action I shud've hiked my bid price to .10
I'm thinking we're headed for $31 next - any thoughts?
Thanks for tip!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for continuing the nti board. I could not remember where it was. For thos of you who reading and wondering for the brazillionth time, youha does not supply a message board for nti.
Nice move today on the Valero news. All refiners moved up. I bought NTI after letting it settle post "spo". Got 500 for myself and another 500 for the kids. This one could be a long long hold.
The oilpatch is all lit up these days.
Does anybody have any sense on how to play the pipeline buildouts? The pipeline managers will not see income from all that input for a few years, but the suppliers of pipeline equipment should be ringing in the profits as we speak. I would propose trading the suppliers for two years and switch to the mlp's.
blacklicorice wrote: "what are the thoughts of the people here about cvrr versus nti and aldw it seem cvrr is not doing as well as the other two any thoughts thanks in advance"
I'm not sure I understand your question. Since their SPO on January 17, CVRR has significantly outperformed both ALDW and NTI. Maybe you just meant yesterday?
Ray - You may already be aware of this but if not, here you go. It is from a SA article so I don't have a company source link for it:
"Northern Tier Energy is taking down its only refinery for a major once every six years turnaround in April. That would impact the Q1 or Q2 distributions depending on how the board decides to reserve for the estimated 50 cents per unit cost."
cvrr has had both of their refineries updated recently also they sold an aditional 90 mil in shares which they said would be returned imediately to unit holders so here comes a #$%$ load of money. after that nti is going to be my baby. i just got to remember where you guys are at
Hey JT, Guys,
With my tail between my legs, I re-purchased 1/2 of my shares I sold for 25.52 at 26.60.
I tried to average down a few days too late.
I guess everyone waited for me to sell before NTI's price was allowed to rise 1.00 more in a few days.
Oh well. It's not like I sold for a loss. :)
Anyway, A dividend of 1.40 would be like AGNC's of old.
AGNC's price of old was around 28.
A 1.40 dividend declaration will draw much attention to this young company, and just might propel it to that range by the NEXT dividend run.
NTI declared its last div. 11/12/12
There's no reason not to expect NTI to declare next week.
I think the market is expecting much from NTI, in terms of a high quarterly dividend this declaration.
Personally I'd like to see the 1.40, though more would be graciously accepted. :)
I'm not sure what the market is expecting.
Whadda youse tink?
"I re-purchased 1/2 of my shares " That is alot better than if you had made an all decision to sell.
As fast as NTI has been moving I suspect many have thought the same thing__sell-buy again lower. I know I have!