but you kinda get the sense it could have happened if someone had started it in the room
lots of good explanation of details of TBAs and how hedges focus on swaptions for a reason.
the swaption thing especially gives me a good feeling about abatement of the risks attendant to the most likely change from this location in the interest-rate environment. if the fed stops buying and the price of MBS drops, rates will pop, and the swaptions will reap (some of? more than?) what the asset value loses.
interesting trivium: the Fed is buying a lot of long-term, low-coupon MBS. that tells me that they are buying only the solid-gold tranches and are not getting into anything off-prime. some of that would be AGNC's purchases if the Fed wasn't there, but it means the price pressure on MBS outside the golden circle is lower than within it, so if AGNC shifts a hair to riskier capital then its investment gets higher rates without much of a premium on price, so the effect of the Fed on profitability is less than we may have thought.