Merrill's estimate was for $1.24 and they had the consensus at $1.31. I expect some variance on new issues and give more credibility to a banker with a relationship as opposed to a Seeking Alpha or Motley Fool article/opinion.
IMO, sometimes your bankers are correct and sometimes not. With energy companies ( regardless of your banker's relationship ) the board will meet and take the dividend and use it for " expansion,etc ".....sometimes it makes the SP go up [ ie. Provident ,etc ] and you have to take the distribution on the top side.
The OP,OVICP who brought NTI to my attention thought that part of the last distribution was money left over from the IPO.He said that everyone who was expecting a similar distribution this quarter,would be shocked and that there would be "blood in the streets".I'm obviously hoping that he is wrong and they will report excellent results due to the supply of cheap oil. We shall see,I bought stock in NTI and calls in CVRR,I'd like to add to them but not chasing it at these prices;waiting for a pullback.
Also been reported that their only refinery will be taken offline in Mar for a once every 6 years cleaning/refurb. Could be a .20 hit on earnings. I realize that is next reporting period but they could hold some back this time to normalize distribution. Certainly on fire again today. Bought some after the recent share selling and some cvrr IPO. Had a buy in on both when/if they dipped .... 6 dollars ago lol. Ahhh hind sight.
I had heard that there was a cyclicality to refiner's profits, weakest in poor weather months because of less driving. Any one know if true? If so, shouldn't 4rth quarter be a weaker quarter and what does that say about upcoming quarters?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well north of $2. They paid $1.48 last quarter based on only 2 months of earnings; that suggests $2.22 based on 3 months. In December they reaffirmed operational guidance at higher end of earlier estimates. The Clearbrook/WTI discount widened substantially in the 4rth quarter, so earnings could be real good. ETrade is saying they will report March 12, so we may have to wait a while to find out.
Sentiment: Strong Buy