American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board
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OT - ARR SPO
I posted some stuff about ARR's SPO tonight over on the MTGE board, if anyone is interested.
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Bump
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ARR should find a bottom early afternoon, then rise at EOD as shorts cover.
- 2 Replies to walrus8
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Good day to add to my existing position!
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I just read the following in an Options Monster article about ARR's option trading yesterday. DocReits was that you shorting those puts? ;-)
"More than 7,000 April 7.50 puts were sold, led by prints of 2,500, 2,000, and 1,000 that went for $0.90, optionMONSTER's systems show. The volume was well above the strike's open interest of 2,693 contracts before the day's trading began, indicating that these are new positions."
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I am not enamored with WMC. I initially touted the company but it is, IMO, off of the mainstream mReit radar. You don't have to look further than its very poor performance after the last offer on Sept, 28th. It hasn't yet(almost 5 months later) even made it back to the spo pricing(22.20). I can't think offhand of too many mReits that can claim that dubious distinction.
I admit that Legg Mason did have lousy luck on the timing for the offer, but investors look at the resilience of PPS despite the timing. IOW, the buck stops with management, regardless of the macroeconomics.
It was one of the few mReits that raised its dividend, so it does have that. Unfortunately, the Goon Squad @ Yahoo refuses to post the correct amount of that dividend, so the uninformed perusing the Yahoo historicals see a massive reduction in the reporting of its Dec dividend, since they reported the special dividend but not the regular dividend...
They have a massive PR uphill road...
The good news...a rising tide, raises all ships....and we do have that....
Good Luck,
DocReits- 2 Replies to reits_r_us
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Doc wrote: "I am not enamored with WMC. I initially touted the company but it is, IMO, off of the mainstream mReit radar. You don't have to look further than its very poor performance after the last offer on Sept, 28th."
I wouldn't be either if I bought in at the SPO in the 22's and saw it drop down to the 17's. But, as you said, they just got hit with some bad timing when the sector took a good sized downturn soon after their SPO.
Knowing that there is a huge supply of shareholders sitting there who bought in the low 22's and seen nothing but red, is information you can use to trade WMC. They have a supply problem, not a management performance problem. Look at what they've done - raised their dividend in the fourth quarter, paid a special, good spread, low CPR, have a buyback plan in place, etc. They have the performance and they sell off enough to pick up shares and trade the range. They have been a great trading vehicle.
Think of them they way you view FSC, PSEC, etc. and you'll like them much better. WMC trades in a good sized range (for an mReit) but has the fundamentals in place in case the sector takes a hit and you have to sit in them for a while. -
I think there's an argument that JMI might be a bit better situated than WMC. In terms portfolios, both companies are heavily into 30yr fixed, but JMI has non-agency also to a tune of 11% of its holdings.
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I added 10,000 shares of ARR's new ARR-PB this AM. Too good to pass up. I imagine it will trade over 25.00 by month's end. What a great way to store cash @ 8%. Look at how ARR-PA started and how soon it traded at a premium this past year for guidance.
Best,
DocReits- 2 Replies to reits_r_us
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i'm surprised , why preferred , even if slightly underpriced , over the regular stock....
Imo you have the same risk without the same upside potencial. -
Hey, Doc,
Why ARR-PB ? RSO-PB, for instance, has been trading in below par 24.70-24.75 range and has a higher coupon.Sentiment: Hold
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Perfect! I just added 1000 shares today at 7.05! great timing:(
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Wow.. ARR's management has some cojones!
They just reported estimated book at $7.28 to $7.30.
That secondary ain't getting pumped out at that price.- 2 Replies to xxavatarxx
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multiple x's - yes, but ARR estimated the book value today (Feb. 12th) is 6.70 to 6.76 so that is how they are justifying the SPO here.
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Oooo, just saw their updated estimated book.
Well I'm glag I sold all my ARR last quarter.
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