I'm playing LINE this way:
I shorted the April 19th 38 puts and went long the April 19th 36 puts in a bull spread for a credit of $1.05.
The OPEX puts you about about 2 weeks prior to LINE's ex and it should be well into its run by then with a good chance of it being over 38 by that time. If it is still a bit under 38, I can take the shares and let the run finish depending on how the rest of the sector is doing.
North american fosil hydrocarbon glut will depress crude prices. Everything in the oilpatch follows regardless of impact in the sub sectors, pipelines,refiners.
I am looking for retraction. Line less than 36 is my entry point. The economic indicators are not strong enough to sustain this rally much longer esp with congress cranking up for drama.
It's kind of an irritation only having two lines visible for message replies. Is this what you fellas are seeing?
I didn't want to rain on the parade but I somewhat agree. While I admit that the mReit and general energy and the broader market is showing sustained strength, I don't see the risk of continued escalation in PPS worth entry at this point. I could be wrong.
If you look at the historical runs for LINE, the overwhelming majority 80+%, have shown great entry points at 14 trading days pre EX. This has returned over 1.50 average across all times going back to Nov 2008. I think there was 1 BE and one 1.00 loss in all of that time. The average gain...1.50. For a 14 day trading hold, that makes much more sense than buying now(even @ 36.00) and waiting through the storms of a whole quarter.
The excrement storm over LINE continues. It looks like a bigger exodus tomorrow. At the same time earnings are due two days later as a dual stimulus spurring both the bears and bulls. I hope the bears have a field day as I will be holding a net in the waterfall to catch all those tasty fish.
A lot of folks who do not understand the amortization of long term hedging costs are bailing.
It would be beautiful to see it go to 33.75 and bounce right up to 39 following earnings. Because you know Linn will be bending over backwards to clarify during the CCall.
probably a good call, looking back at last couple of years.... line has fallen to or below 36 about 4 times a year but does not stay for long periods. this also tends to be a weak period in the distribution cycle (mid month during the dist. month).... i bought 1/4 a position today at 35.98 and will add if lower.... now above an 8% yield