Wed, Aug 20, 2014, 11:54 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • jess_1554 jess_1554 Mar 1, 2013 9:33 AM Flag

    OT - MAIN

    RE: Doc’s formula for entry at EX+3. This was discussed at length in previous posts.
    The results of this strategy were so good I ran it for all days between EX+3 and the following EX-1 for all periods since January 2009 with the following results:

    Total days formula was applied = 771 days in 50 periods. 23 of the 50 periods contained entry hits. One period of the 23 was a loss. Total losing days were 6 for a total of 0.46. Longest consecutive time without any entry hits was 7 periods (roughly 7 months).

    Total number of days containing entry hits = 138 for a net gain of 145.69. Average gain for all periods = 2.91. Average gain for periods containing hits = 6.33. Average gain per trade = 1.06. Largest gain for one trade = 3.85. Longest holding period for a single trade = 16 days.

    The strategy is a little cumbersome and takes daily attention to apply, but the loss rate is almost negligible and the gains excellent. Setting up a spreadsheet with the formula could signal buys by entering the PPS near the close of each day.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Hey Jess,

      Thank you for your work and enthusiasm. Were you applying the GLAD rules for MAIN in your posted results, with X+3 as your initial buy, if GLAD rules in force, and then new buys for each forward date until X-6 as each new GLAD date rolled by? Finally, were all accumulated shares exited on the close of EX-1?

      Thanks Jess,

      DocReits

    • bowhunterron@ymail.com bowhunterron Mar 1, 2013 10:19 AM Flag

      First, let me say thank you to you and Doc for the work you put into this. I was thinking as a strategy, I would make my first buy Maybe 1/2 the position on EX+2 (from scenario #1) Then switch over to scenario 2 and make subsequent buys using the formula. That way if at the close of EX+3 you do not have a quantity greater than 0.035 you are in the trade using the entry point from scenario 1. Thoughts

      • 1 Reply to bowhunterron
      • Bow -

        Sounds like a good strategy to me. Starting with EX+2 each period gives a profit 80% of the time and keeps you more or less constantly in the game.

        Running the formula on EX-3 and every day thereafter until the following EX-1 gives a profit almost 100% of the time, but there are long dry periods, and taking total advantage of a big winning period takes a much larger investment because trades accumulate during the period. For instance, the most winning period in the study had 15 winning trades. If $1000 was invested in each trade, $15000 would be needed before cashing in. (but doubling your money in 16 days in this particular case). Of course, just because the formula indicates the possibility of a winning trade, does not mean you have to make the trade.

        The beauty of the formula trade, to me, is it is almost pain free. A buy signal results in a profit 96% of the time, at least historically. (Standard whine about history not necessarily repeating is worth remembering).

        I intend to follow it, and have set up a spreadsheet to flash the buy signal automatically upon entry of PPS near the close each day.

 
AGNC
23.36+0.07(+0.30%)Aug 20 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.