I still think the April contract is the best month for the run this month. I think a last week EX date in March, which gives us over 13 more trading days for the run is probable. I expect the Apr32Calls will be @ par on any pull backs, which will be very tempting for this many days left.
I got filled on the open today on the Apr31Calls @ 1.05, on the low of the day. We might see that again before its over which will trigger my finger again....;-)
"I think a last week EX date in March, which gives us over 13 more trading days for the run is probable."
Not seeing it. 19th-21st is their sweet spot for ex-divs ever since they made the shift in 2011Q1. An extra week doesn't buy them a thing. The SPO wasn't that big, and they've got the cash to cover the 1.25, easy.
The only reason to delay would be if they also increase the div and want a little extra time to build the kitty a buffer.
But it's almost moot, because the Asks are almost identical for the 31's in March and April. Comparing delta estimates is pointless, since the measured delta will be almost the same value in the end. It's unlikely the higher estimated delta on the near month will cause its price to go above the next month, so the extra value normally implied in buying the higher delta is fictitious this time.
"Darn it" Doc, you got me thinking last night re: the April $31's, leverage, & limits.... And then I just had to try putting a limit order in to potentially stuff one of my small accounts that had a light amount of excess cash sitting around... You know I've favored the $30-strikes this qtr but this was a clear case of needing the leverage of the $31's to make it "worthwhile".
Anyways, by the time I checked this morning, the order was filled at $1.13 and the stock was already trading $32.15+. Gotta love it.
Now I'm really, really done buying calls for this qtr... Really.
Good job Doc, I'm feeling pretty good about AGNC myself I was able to fill my orders last Fri and Yesterday. I wound up with Sept 30s @1.99 and April 30s @1.66 at the open Thursday. Nice to be in the money already.
Don't you just love it when you buy some calls and the price moves up enough to beat the spread and you're in the green by the end of the day? It would surprise me if we see Apr31 Calls at 1.05 again before Ex-div. I like the way both AGNC and MTGE are tracking even before dividend announcement.