FWIW, this is a short term trade I am thinking of. PVH (Phillips-Van Heusen) went ex-dividend today. Over the past 8 quarters, buying PVH at close on the 4th trading day after ex-div gives you a great short term trading opportunity.
I am still not certain of the optimal time to sell using this strategy, but have chosen the close on the 29th. By my calculations, the average gain is $5.58. If this chart shows up, it is my calculations of the profit each quarter using this strategy. The worst is $0.49 and the best is $11.76. If you throw out those two quarters, the average gain is $5.40. In some quarters the gain would actually be more profitable if you held longer.
Thanks. Any input will be greatly appreciated. I always worry that there is one big piece of the puzzle that is invisible to me. It looks like it might have turned upwards already, but I am going to resist the temptation to get in early.