AGNC's last reported (2/7/2013) book value was $31.64. Now that that PPS is approaching 103% of BV, we're getting close to, or already in, SPO range. Given the widening spreads, AGNC might see the potential investments with SPO money as too tasty to pass up (even only at 102-103%) and pull the trigger now. MTGE is still below last reported book ($25.74) so much less likely to SPO. Of course, what their current BV is...I have no idea and no way to appropriately estimate it.
I have no options in either at the moment (very heavy into WMC though), but I shifted all my AGNC stock into MTGE.
At first I thought, "No way! They wont pack two secondaries so close together".
Hey if conditions are right, MTGE did two offerings in between the first and second dividends last year. If price consolidates for a week or two, AGNC is ready. Not saying it's a high probability.
disagree. another month or so, at least. the last SPO obligated teh payment of the dividend to the new shares that did not "earn" it by being in existance for a quarter, along with their related capital. not only that, 103% of BV 2 months ago is something less % of today's BV. assuming that BV has continued to grow.
What is it that you disagree with? That AGNC has a higher probability of a SPO than MTGE? I'm not saying that it's probable that AGNC will SPO in the next week (or two), only that it's more probable than for MTGE. MTGE has a gap to close before it reaches previous book value, while AGNC is already above previous book value.
At this point I'm not willing to assume that BV has grown. Maybe, maybe not.