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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • raybans2 raybans2 Apr 2, 2013 11:34 AM Flag

    Just bought Tesla Motors

    They are exceeding their sales goals for the model S and it seems that this car is taking off. And as would be expected investors are pleased. Electric cars are the future and Tesla seems to have the magic sauce. I believe that by the end of 2014 they may exceed the Chevy Volt’s sales and already exceed the Nissan Leaf sales which is no surprise as it is a better car with many advanced features built in such as active suspension which uses electrical controls to tighten the suspension in turns but keeps it softer for bumps when driving straight.

    It will be a very long time before this becomes an issue for Tesla but I really don't see what there is in the drive train to wear out. There will be breaks to replace and the like and maybe a battery retrofit in time but the motor should last until the car starts to fall apart due to road wear which could take quite a while, say 500,000 miles give or take.

    Currently the model S is making a profit. The 60kwH batter gets about 208 miles in range. Obviously no one expects to use this car for travel.

    Tesla's first quarter 2013 sales of model S: 4,750, goal was 4,500. They expect to exceed 20,000 in 2013. I think they set the bar low. The entire 2012 production of the model S was 2,650.

    Volt 2012 sales: 23,461

    Leaf 2012 sales: 6,791

    Sales for electric cars dropped in January across the board. I suspect that this was seasonal and probably related to post Christmas credit card shock. Volt bounced back some in Feb. but not to their 2012 average.

    I don't like the Volt. When the battery runs out and the engine kicks in it is a gas mileage dog compared to other hybrids in its class. So I'm not sure it is fair to compare it to the Model S which does not have a gasoline engine. No more trips to the gas station.

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    • Raybans you remind me of a door to door salesman that has a different product every time he drops by.

      • 1 Reply to mr.phil2u
      • When I open my coat I can display a fine assortment of Rolex and Omega watches which are guaranteed to be authentic but priced to be within reach of the common man. Not seem in my face are the rodent eyes one sees from the likes of Obama but the trusting sort that say, “Trust me, these fine watches are as pristine as the principles upon which Obamacare were founded.” Of course when you hear that you should run but once I give you respected Democrats as my references you shell out your money eagerly knowing that nothing could be a-rye. From the achieves of Rayban's: "The making of a fool."

        Is anyone surprised that the Democrats are now admitting that Obamacare is NOT going to save money after all but will cost much more than they had anticipated? Dah!!! As if they had not realized this all along. Get real. Corruption to the core. Nothing ever changes. Of course people will make excuses for inexcusable behavior because they want to, not because it is justified. The justification is irrelevant. All that matters is that the cause does not die regardless of whether it passes the smell test or not. And it does reek mind you but it’s nothing that a little perfume can’t cure. Would you like a fine Rolex watch my friend? Obama has one just like it. It is truly a bargain.

    • Tesla shares fell 2.3% in after-hours trading after they released the news about their leasing program, that will allow consumers to put the value of federal and state electric-car tax credits, which range from $7,500 to $15,000, toward the cost of a down payment. .

      • 1 Reply to walrus8
      • Yes, I am down a lot at this point but this is not unusual for an upstart tech stock. I invest in stocks like AGNC for more stable returns. I invest in stocks like TSLA in hope finding the next MSFT or CSCO. But I am not a fool. If it keeps declining like this I will dump and look for another lower entry point. I won't allow my losses to exceed 15%. I never do.

    • RayB ...

      Are they using lithium batteries? If so, is that a problem? About 98% of all lithium comes from one South American country as I recall. I don't know if supply is an issue, or cost.

      • 2 Replies to ray858945
      • Also, there are many new battery technologies being investigated, many of which use no lithium. 30 years from now I suspect that the batteries we are using will be nothing like the ones we are using today. Battery technology is moving very fast. For one they will need huge amounts of energy storage for the grid because of the unpredictable fluctuations associated with green energy generation. Nano technology is changing everything.

      • Lithium batteries get recycled. However, you are right, the largest lithium deposits in the world are in Bolivia. However, I don't even think they have started to mine it to that great of a degree yet. But with all the recent interest in lithium batteries I'm sure they will. My guess is that a foreign mining company will come in and do it for them.

        Right now a lot of the lithium comes from Argentina, Chile and the US in Nevada. But there is no need to worry. We can always attack them and turn them into slaves and put them to work mining lithium for us and keep it all for US consumption only. That should allow us to get all the lithium we need. Oops, I had a China moment.

    • having an electric car(only a humble GEM NEV) makes me very sensitive to electric car issues. i can tell you that the major issue, by far, is the batteries. their lifespan and driving range. everything else is either a non-issue or no worse than an ICE machine.

      economically, electric cars make sense, as long as petroleum products increase in price faster than electrcity prices.

      • 2 Replies to mrwizard9090
      • Aren't GEM NEVs nothing more than upgraded golf carts? Don't their speeds max out at about 35 to 45 miles per hour? I'm not sure i would feel safe going any faster than that in a golf cart. You are definitely going to have a lower cost of ownership in an NEV. But then you could do even better with one of those 3 wheel bicycles that has one of those large baskets for storing stuff. I guess it is all a matter of what you consider an acceptable form of transportation.

        I would not mind owning an NEV but I think I would not use it for many things. I can imagine that they are very popular to own on small islands. People in the beach cities near where I live own them but I don't think they venture out of their neighborhood into the larger metropolitan area less they get squashed by a soccer mom in an SUV that didn't notice them because she was talking on her cell phone about the importance of getting the right color shoes for her upcoming event. Not that all "kept" soccer moms are air heads but then those that aren't are not the ones that one worries about.

        Lucky for me I live in a state where it is illegal to drive and talk on the cell phone and thus I no longer get forced off the road by distracted drivers who change lanes without looking. But then I finally stopped driving beside people on the road so that could be part of it. I must say that driving used to be a less dangerous activity than it is today. The sooner they add collision avoidance radars to all cars the better. If you live in a city people where learn to drive as an older adult because they didn't learn in the country they came from you will learn why it is important to learn driving at the youngest possible age. It seems that when you learn at an older age that it never becomes natural and thus more mistakes are made which puts all the people around you in danger.

      • I have a plug in Prius and it gets about 4 miles per KWH when in EV mode. I pay 12 cents per KWH for the meter that I use for charging and thus that is 3 cents per mile. At $4.00 per gallon you need to be getting 133 miles per gallon to match that. However one has to amortize the cost of the battery so it is not that good. The cost of the battery has to be about 10 cents per mile or less for it to make sense. It's probably no better than this today however the cost of batteries is dropping by about 10 to 15 percent a year which means that every 4 to 6 years the cost is halved. Today the buyer of the Tesla is the guy/gal who is making the statement about the environment. It will take 5 to 10 more years before the battery cost are low enough before the guy who only cares about the bottom line savings and has little concern about the environment will be a buyer. But by then if you are not making these cars in large quantities you have missed the boat as you will need that economy of scale to compete. Any new players will have trouble catching up without losing tons of money for many years to get to where you are. So I think that Tesla’s timing is almost perfect. As they ramp up the learning curve they sell to the environmentalist until their cost is low enough to sell to the general market. However I’m sure it will always be a high end product and thus not for the poor because the added cost of the battery will always make the upfront cost more than a gasoline car and probably too high for the lower tier buyer.

        Right now I believe the waiting list for the model S is about 15,000. They aren’t having any difficulty finding customers at this point in time. That is not their problem. Making enough cars to sell them is their problem. And at production rates of about 25k a year I think they have a ways to go before they run out of environmentalist. And from the flat Leaf sales and the Volts 2013 first quarter sales, they seem to be grabbing market share.

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