NMM has a quarterly 12% dividend. Buying at X+12 and selling at X-5 would have produced an average gain of 1.29 per qtr over the last 21 quarters, with only 3 quarters losing.
When the world economies are booming at their peak, dry bulk ships are usually in short supply and the shipping rates go way up and the ship builders get busy. The last time this happened everyone flocked to buy DRYS. But anyone who held long term is wishing they had not. However I suspect that at some point in time that this sector will go through another such cycle. One just needs to be aware that the strategy is to get out at the peak before it crashes again. You need to be good at picking profitable exits. If DRYS goes up a factor of 4 in price it might be an indication to buy again. But of course there needs to be similar conditions as what caused the last dry bulk shipping shortage or it may not happen as dramatically again.
I didn't do all of the math but I think Jess meant to say buy at X-12 and sell at X-5. (Jess correct me if I'm wrong.) In any event the sell date is 5 days BEFORE the ex-dividend date. This limits your exposure time. The hard part is guessing when the ex date will be because X-12 is usually before the company announces the distribution date. For this cycle, my guess is that the announcement will be sometime during the week of Apr 22 with and ex-date early the week of May 6. (True confessions: I missed my estimates for both AGNC and WMC ex-dates this cycle, so caveat emptor.)
I have some NMM now in my trading acct.,
and have held them long term in my ira as well.
The last few quarters I was able to buy NMM around 12.50-13.50 and sell my shares at just under 15 to make a nice profit,
with some dip buying and spike selling in-between.
NMM has become one of my favorite stocks on my watch list(re: very profitable every quarter).
With NMM at 14.42 or so, I think NMM has plenty of time to break 15(and above!) since the dividend run has not yet really commenced.
NMM is due to announce its next dividend on or about 04/22/13,
if you add three months since its last declaration.
There's not a long dividend run: the decl. and the ex. dates are usually about 2wks. apart.
NMM has been paying .4425 per quarter for some time now and is not expected to change either way.