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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Apr 13, 2013 9:05 PM Flag

    OT...$$$... Nuveen Rules

    Hey all you Glad/3% traders who are bored this weekend...you might want to work out some new Rules for a couple monthly payers from Nuveen. They are JTP and JPS. I've combed about half of their CEFs and I have found these, so far, as potential monthly candidates for the SS.

    The quick and dirty eye ball look, places me at entry on (X+2) and exit on the Open of (X-7). Instead of 3%, once trade begun on (X+2), place limits each night to buy more at 10 cents below the next evening's close on every night up through the next (X-9). This will involve more fills each month, than the 3% Rule. It is just over 1%.

    The other Glad rule applies as far as no trade if initial entry greater than the last (X-1). A new rule for Nuveen is not to enter a new nightly buy order( for 10 cents less than the close) if that new limit order is greater than the last purchase.

    All of these companies have different and similar patterns, so we need to custom fit each new stock. Here's asking for your eyes to help us all find Waldo...;-)

    Jess, if you can run the numbers as far back as you can that would be much appreciated. TIA,

    DocReits

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    • Bump................................

    • Wow, that was fun!

      10,000 more shares of ARR @6.31 on the close and 200 May10Call contracts on FSC @ .55 on the close. I was in buy mode today. My orders haven't been this many in awhile. Can't forget that this Wednesday is entry for CLM, CFP and CRF if Glad/3% met.

      Today is a stark reminder of why I developed this model. Even in a down or sideways market we are stealth traders in that we grab the historical lows(ARR and JTP today, which were X+2) entry points and sell a few weeks/days later at the historical highs(X-1, or X+17 for ARR and X-7 for JTP) We use stops, and if stopped out, so be it. We trade the next cycle.

      I wonder if the Dim One is a secret follower(trader) of Glad/3%. What do you think?

      Best to all longs...what a great day for shopping!

      DocReits

    • Lock and load. Remember I mentioned that today is the historical best entry for the 14 trading day run to EX on LINE and JTP. Just bought May36Calls @ 2.00 on LINE. Will look for more at better prices on further weakness. Starting position at X+2 on JTP @ 5000 shares. Will add on each 10 cent decline. Unload at X-7 on the Open..

      Lets make some money!

      DocReits

    • Doc, I need some help. I am busy with personal matters and am out of the market, but trying to keep up my notes. You said, " place limits each night to buy more at 10 cents below the next evening's close on every night up through the next (X-9)." Does this mean after the close tonight, I would place a limit order for tomorrow at ten cents below today's close? If I read it literally, I think it means I have to anticipate tomorrow's close to place the order. I do not mean to be difficult, just struggling....Steve

    • Doc -

      Looks to me like you have done it again. Basic results for JPS follow. I hope to get to JTP tomorrow.

      JPS - Averages of the full 129 periods approach the mean and do not give useful results for exit, at least in the basic look. However, X+2 entry is confirmed overall, and I used the past 52 periods (2009 to present) to look for an exit. Strictly considering one entry and exit trade, then exit at X-1 provides an average gain of 0.23 vs 0.17 for X-7. The X-1 exit results in 12 losing periods out of the total 52 periods (11 losing for X-7).

      On average, X+2, X+3, and X+4 are virtually the same for the entire 52 periods. This is confirmed in the whole 129 periods also. This might provide additional fodder for an entry rule to reduce losing periods and increase gains. I hope to look at this closer after doing the basic for JTP.

      I hope to look at increasing trades with the 10 cent rule also. Lots of numbers here.

      • 2 Replies to jess_1554
      • HeyJess,

        I have been working on both stocks, JTP and JPS, and have discovered some interesting historical trends.

        Bottom line JTP is the winner, hands down, IMO. I have hand cranked back over the last 30 months of JTP and have one losing month for a 96.6% win rate, with a few caveats listed below.

        Of those 30 months we had 43 entries with the 10 cent Rule. Of those 43 entries we had 4 losing entries for a 90.7% win rate.

        One month we were stopped out...Jul/Aug 2011 for a 31 cent loss. All other 29 months, as I said were winners.

        The stop out Rule for Nuveen I found best, was to add the high and the low of the entry date(X+2) divide by two to get the average PPS and use that value as the 2.5% stop loss for each day's average of the same.

        So each day take the average of the hi and lo and multiply by .975. If that value is equal to or less than your stop, you are out of there baby...stopped out!!

        That is it ...pretty simple...

        Your thoughts??

        DocReits

      • Thank you Jess,

        I am excited to see how many losses are turned into gains with the 10 cent Rule!!

        DocReits

    • The quick and dirty eye ball look, places me at entry on (X+2) and exit on the Open of (X-7). Instead of 3%, once trade begun on (X+2), place limits each night to buy more at 10 cents below the next evening's close on every night up through the next (X-9).

      Doc, did you mean at 10 cents below the LAST evening's close?

    • I think what will silence any critics who honestly look at this model is that JTP, for example, went from a high of over 15.00 dollars at its inception in 2002 down to a low of 3.00 during the crash of 2008 and still made money during that time period.

      Hard to argue with the math..(wait...where's Jonkai?)......;-)

      DocReits

 
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