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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Apr 17, 2013 11:19 PM Flag

    JTP heads up

    They traded down almost 5% in AH to 8.62. Here is the possible entry for those late to the party. I have been looking for a reason and I have not found it yet. I will add here. Interesting introduction to the Nuveen logo...;-)

    DocReits

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    • Doc -

      Finally got to JTP. Results in three divisions of single entry and exit per period below. Entry at your X+2 confirmed in all three divisions, but X-1 best exit for single trade/period. Divisions are: All 129 periods, 51 periods Dec 08 to present, and 15 periods Dec 11 to present:

      ALL (129 periods) - average gain 0.12. 89 gaining periods, 40 losing.
      DEC 08 - PRESENT (51 periods) - average gain 0.20, 39 gaining periods, 12 losing.
      DEC 11 - PRESENT (15 periods) - average gain 0.19, 15 gaining periods, 4 losing.

      Apparently I do not understand the rules correctly for JTP and JPS, as I get differences from your numbers. Here's what I have done for each period:
      1. Entry near close of X+2 if PPS

      • 2 Replies to jess_1554
      • Thanks Jess,

        Your post did not come through as you can see. I got only one cycle(month) loss out of the last 29 cycles, and only 4 losses out of 43 entries(trades). To recap, here are the simple Rules which are unique for JTP. JTP looses with X-1... Use X-7, on the Open, not close, as your exit. Even a casual observation , which I just did , will quickly confirm this(X-7), over (X-1) , going back 29 months, anyway.

        Buy more, after initial entry, using 10 cents less than close for new entries through (X-9) close. Remember never to enter a purchase order for more than you paid for your last purchase. Stop loss(mental) at 2.5% less than avg of entry date's hi/lo average. Use current date's hi/lo avg for basing your stop. Never stop if volume of current day is equal to or greater than twice the daily avg volume.

        Very simple....use these parameters for 96.67% win rate over the last 29 cycles. One losing month out of 29. 4 losing trades out of 43. I am long 6,000 shares of JTP as of last Monday @ 8.95 average. If PPS remains at the current 9.07 I will be prevented from placing an order tonight because 10 cents less than that is 8.97 which will put me in over my last 8.95 purchase. (Remember the 3% and 10 cent repurchase paradigm, IMO, is intended to average down, not up).

        Questions?

        Regards and thank you for your help,

        DocReits

      • cont'd
        1. Entry near close of X+2 if PPS

    • Here is a link to their page. Most CEFs trade at a discount to NAV and JTP is no exception with a 9.25 NAV. This fund holds preferred issues and has done well(under "performance") since 2009.

      nuveen.$$$/CEF/Product/Overview.aspx?FundCode=JTP

      Substitute :C:O:M: without the colons for the dollar signs.

      DocReits

    • it was one trade of 250 shares at 8.62, prob someone wanted out regardless of price for whatever reason.

    • Guess we'll see, but that's one trade for 250 shares, right? I'm kinda thinking no biggy...what am I missing here? As I said before, I am looking for an entry, cause i missed the first, but not sure if this is it...I'll watch....thanks for the HU ("heads up") for those not very twitter-literate...JK

 
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