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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • raybans2 raybans2 Apr 25, 2013 11:53 AM Flag

    Tesla keeps "charging" higher

    The new Apple of the auto business is running on zero cylinders and that is a good thing. It seems that this is the break out year for Tesla. Their revamped business model is working and they have several new models coming out including a redesigned roadster which looks more like the traditional European sports car. Production of the model “S” can't ramp fast enough to meet demand and they are stealing customers from the Leaf. It's all good. The word one most hears when talking about Tesla is “disruptive”.

    I bought after the initial run up but initially wondered if I should wait for a pull back. I didn’t do that and if I had I would still be waiting. Fence sitting is safe but no one ever made any money that way. You can’t make an argument for this stock based on valuation. You have to believe that they are at the start of an explosive growth phase. If you don’t believe that then don’t buy it.

    I also bought Southwest airlines recently. I know the air traffic controller situation is not good but oil prices are going down and oil is a significant cost for airlines. And that is a reason I also have no more oil stocks. Southwest is probably the best run airline. I would not own any other.

    My mREITs holdings are a lot lower but that is nothing new. I reduced them a while back out of concerns over the impact of QE3. I own AGNC, TWO, CYS unfortunately, and WMC.

    Boeing seems to be the “big” train that could. Nothing seems to faze them, not even the 787 battery fiasco which seems to be very close to being in the past.

    It looks like the farming industry is preparing for another year of high commodity prices due to weather conditions. To this end they are buying a lot of drought tolerant seeds which is good for seed suppliers.

    Cognitive computing is on my radar but applications are way off.

    Remember, buy CREE LED bulbs at HD, if you can find any. Seems they are having a hard time keeping them on the shelves. I waited 5 years for this. Finally.

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    • I need to mention one other thing which is the battery. Everyone points out how expensive the batteries are and they are right. However the price of batteries is declining by 10% a year. That is huge. Once the battery is cheap enough this technology will become main stream. But to be a player when that day comes you need to be selling cars now or you won't have the production experience required to compete. That is why I think Tesla's timing is perfect.

      The long term future market for electric cars is in the trillions. And unlike solar panels I don't think it is as easy to get into the business as making a car is no small feat.

      Every portfolio needs a few stocks that have the potential of being a 10 bagger. That won't be AAPL.

      Railroads are still doing well. I don't own it now but UNP is on my radar. I guess I need to brush up on my rail car loading stats. Buffet likes railroads. And all that oil that would have gone down the keystone pipeline is going by rail. Huge amounts of it. I wonder if Buffet helped kill the pipe using the environment as a ruse. I guess we will never know.

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