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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Apr 27, 2013 4:18 AM Flag

    OT...Late Night Musings...Glad/1.5%

    Well here we are again at the end of another week. This is the end of my hiatus from surgery as I get the OK to go back to work now. I am much better and I thank all of the scores of you who wished me well.

    Well did we make any money this week? It is there for the taking. Trillions of dollars in the biggest bank in the world with easy access by all who have a trading account. All you have to do is buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low if you short. Why is it so hard for most? Real easy answer. It is also 100% correct....WE get in the way....;-)

    I probably got out of FSC too early. I was trying to avoid the stampede every time we get close to 11.00. I was out today on 30,000 shares for a little over $12,000 profit. FSC has been good. It is less reliable than the Varsity Five though so I have Red Shirted it to the bench. It is a maverick and should be used only on special occasions.

    I really believe more and more on surgical incisions. Strike with many shares for small moves. Do this only on stocks with 80+% historically reliable runs to EX, like LINE and KMP....good examples. I took over a dollar each this past week and a half on a few thousand shares of each. That two week run to EX on each is golden, historically with over 80% statistical reliability of over 1.00 wins on each.

    ARR is like watching grass grow. It is up 10 cents since purchase on (X+2).It still has a long ways to go until exit on May 9-10 though. I would like to see 6.50 or better by then. I presently have 20,000 shares, and would like to add 10,000 more.

    I have standing orders for 6,000 shares more of CLM, CRF, CFP, and JTP. They are all stars on the Varsity Team presently in play. JPC is waiting in the locker room, getting his jersey on to join the game. That will be the 5 man dream team for this coming month. Remember the rules. The other team does not always play fair and can hit below the belt. If that happens we have our Stop Rules to sideline our players, (more, cont)....

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    • Hi Doc. I've come across a couple of your references to Glad strategy but haven't seen the original post that describes the strategy. Could you tell me where that information is? Thanks

    • Re FSC: I agree. There's historical resistance around 11. MIght have gotten another .10 if lucky, but it was hard to say no to double the average monthly delta pps.

    • (Cont)...

      while they recover. You will note I no longer call this Glad/3%, but Glad/1.5%. I am presently using 10 cents as a buy guide for all future declines. This works out to about 1.5% on the present PPS of the 5-6 dollar/share members of the Varsity.

      Since our newest member, JPC will weigh in at 10.00/share it will change the relative nature of 10 cents, so I thought a standard would be good to establish at 1.5%. This is still pretty conservative as the Rules state that we take the lower of the last purchase price or the current day's close and use that PPS and multiply by .985 in setting the new limit buy.

      I am hoping everyone saw the new Stop addendum to Stop out if the close on (X-7) is less than the original purchase price. This has a sometimes negative effect in stopping you out early for further runs to EX, but has a greater positive effect in stopping severe loss.

      Well, with that out of the way, I am off to slumber land. I wish all of my friends much success and happiness as we trade this exciting Glad/1.5% model. I am excited. Remember not to hate the model on your first loss, because it is coming. This is a model to create successful trades on 90% of your entries. That means 10% of the time we will lose. You must buck up and deal with that reality, especially with the knowledge that you will win 90% of the time...;-)

      Be Glad,


17.24-0.31(-1.77%)Feb 11 4:00 PMEST