It wouldn't surprise me if most wait until after the earnings call tomorrow to comment. My guess is that the call will be quite positive, and that the stock will likely get near $34 pretty quickly in coming days (macro market conditions willing).
With no one actively beating the AGNC drums right now after its continuing grind upwards, and the ex-div a long way off, my assumption is that AGNC regulars are expecting the stock is running up at a rate that will induce an SPO -- and then everyone will buy in. I have a little concern that the SPO gets delayed long enough for us to go 2 steps forward, 1 step back (even with an SPO, assuming it occurs for the 2nd quarter in a row, the stock may net out higher than where it is now).
I suppose the counter argument remains though that it's more prudent to wait until closer to the div, and then place a bet that has a higher probability of success. Consider we still have nearly 2 months until the typical ex-div date. A lot can happen in that time.
Excellent post. I was just reviewing my notes and noticed that the last SPO (2/27/13) was offered at 32.78, with net pricing somewhere in the 31.65 range, coinciding with the MRQ BV/Share (31.65 @ 12-31-12).
In the interim, the yield on the 10yr T's are down from 1.86 (1/2/13) to 1.66 (5/1/13). Due to M2M accounting requirements, the decrease in LT rates should result in a higher BV/share. If anyone on the board can correlate the effect that a 30 basis point drop has on the BV/share, this will give us a realistic pps target for an accretive (to BV/share) SPO.
I may be jaded, but unless the decrease in spread is enough of an impediment to stop the wheels, I anticipate an SPO prior to the next dividend payment. If the stock in fact has a positive ER, with strong 2013 dividend guidance, IMO, a near term rise in the pps will further set the table for a 2Q SPO.
I'm going to maintain my share position through the ER, but if a significant bump occurs, I'm probably out until either an SPO or the X-d (My shares have already earned the dividend in cap appreciation). The ER should be interesting. Stay tuned...
If you look at the charts, every time it hits this level of being technically overbought it has pulled back about $2. So, if the earnings don't meet of exceed expectations in every aspect when reported tonight, we'll see that $2 pullback tomorrow. I'm not going to chance it. I'll wait on the report and see what tomorrow brings.